Thursday, September 25, 2008

Colorado looking better and better for Obama

Remember, Obama wins if he holds onto the Kerry states from 2004 and adds Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado.

Which Kerry states will Obama struggle the most to hold onto?

1) Pennsylvania. With 21 electoral votes, this one is a must-win. gives Obama only a 2.4% lead, taking the average of several polls. Real Clear Politics gives Obama a 3.3% lead.

2) New Hampshire. With only 4 electoral votes, Obama could lose this state and still win the election. But if NH goes to McCain, where else will?

Pollster puts McCain up 1.2 points, while RCP gives Obama a 2-point edge.

3) Michigan. If Obama loses here, he will need to win a big state like Florida to make up the electoral votes. Michigan is solidifying for him in recent polls, and RCP gives Obama a 3.9% advantage.

4) Minnesota. THis one was supposed to be in the bag for the Dems, but RCP gives Obama only a 2.8 percent lead. Pollster makes is 3.2%.

Now, what about those three states Obama needs to pick up?

1) Iowa. Bush won this state in 2004, but Obama has a stranglehold on this most Caucasian of Caucus states. Pollster gives him a wopping 10-point edge, and RCP makes it 9.4%.

2) New Mexico. Bush won this state by the narrowest of margins in 2004. Obama is up 6 points, according to RCP, and 6.2 %, according to


Check out these recent polls:

Sept. 24:
Rasmussen +3 Obama
CNN +4 Obama
Insider Advantage +9 Obama

Sept. 23:
PPP +7 Obama
Quinnipiac +4 Obama

So, if Obama holds onto Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan and Minnesota, and wins Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado (all of which look likely), the result is this:

Obama 273
McCain 265

Keep in mind that this scenario allows McCain to win Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Indiana and Nevada - all states where Obama is competitive.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008


Obama breaks 50 in this new WaPo/ ABC News Poll.

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Battle of the Databases?

Read about Catalist, the mega-database the Dem's are hoping will allow them to compete with the GOP's ground game more effectively.

Ground Game Update

This article by Sean Quinn at has him walking the streets of Durango, Colorado. The Gore and Kerry campaigns didn't even have an office there, but check out what the Obama team has done.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Florida, North Carolina, Indiana still in play

CNN/ Sept 17
Obama 48
McCain 48

CNN/ Sept 17
Obama 47
McCain 48

Selzer/ Sept 17
Obama 47
McCain 44

CNN/ Sept 17
Obama 45
McCain 51

Wednesday, September 17, 2008


Well, the conventional wisdom was that Sarah Palin made soft-red states like Montana impossible for Obama, but new polls suggest that just isn't the case.

A new ARG poll out today has Obama only two points behind there (49/47).

There are now 5 daily tracking polls

Overkill? You decide. Anyway, here they are, from yesterday's results:

Gallup McCain 47 Obama 46 McCain +1
Rasmussen McCain 48 Obama 47 McCain +1
Research 2000/ Daily Kos McCain 44 Obama 48 Obama +4
Hotline/ Diageo McCain 42 Obama 46 Obama +4
Ipsos/ McClatchy McCain 45 Obama 45 Tied

Average of all 5: McCain 45.2 Obama 46.4 Obama +1.2

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Horserace: Sept. 16th

Is McCain's Palin bump over?

Look at today's numbers, from these Daily Tracking Polls:

Gallup - McCain 47/ Obama 46
(down from a high of 49/44 a week ago)

Rasmussen - McCain 48/ Obama 47
(down from 49/46 a few days ago)

Research 2000 (which includes third-party options)-
Obama 48/ McCain 44

Compare those to these non-tracking polls:

ARG - McCain 48/ Obama 45
GWU - McCain 48/ Obama 44

I think the main thing to remember here is that all of these polls are within the margin of error, or very close.

It will be interesting to see if the Gallup poll equalizes again tomorrow.

Palin's favorability numbers have evened out

All the hubbub over Palin means that people have chosen sides.

You either love her or you hate her.

That's what I don't like about her. I think we've had enough of that type of person in Washington.

I have to say it again...

Joe Biden is on fire. Here he is in St Clair Shores, Michigan.

By the way, the GOP denies the foreclosure list tactic.

Did the blog make it up?

What's going on in Michigan?

People whose homes were foreclosed to lose their vote? Challenged on non-residency grounds?

I think this will mobilize Michiganders to get out the vote.

Michigan Republicans plan to foreclose African-American voters

The chairman of the Republican Party in Macomb County, Michigan, a key swing county in a key swing state, is planning to use a list of foreclosed homes to block people from voting in the upcoming election as part of the state GOP’s effort to challenge some voters on Election Day.

“We will have a list of foreclosed homes and will make sure people aren’t voting from those addresses,” party chairman James Carabelli told Michigan Messenger in a telephone interview earlier this week. He said the local party wanted to make sure that proper electoral procedures were followed.

State election rules allow parties to assign “election challengers” to polls to monitor the election. In addition to observing the poll workers, these volunteers can challenge the eligibility of any voter provided they “have a good reason to believe” that the person is not eligible to vote. One allowable reason is that the person is not a “true resident of the city or township.”

Only Obama gets Pakistan

This from Christopher Hitchens. I agree.

Time Zone time

ON election night, we see results come in from the EST time zone first. This will be a test for how the Dems' turnout operation works.

If Obama wins Virginia and New Hampshire, it's a very good sign. If he wins Florida too, there is no way the Repub's can eke out a victory. That's because even if they take Ohio, Michigan, New Mexico, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada, they still lose. Virginia plus Florida would equal an electoral lock for the Dems, but more likely it would signal that the impressive ground game operation is working, and could perhaps be a harbinger of electoral landslide.

If the GOP takes New Hampshire and Virginia, then the Dems will have to really hope their Western strategy works.

Electoral math

The amazing thing is that Obama doesn't even need both Colorado and Virginia, just one of them.

That's right, Obama can lose Ohio, Florida and win only one of Colorado and Virginia, and he still wins.

How? By holding onto (from the 2004 results) Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, and adding Iowa, New Mexico (both look likely) and either Colorado or Virginia.

Here's a map you can play with.

Now, try adding Iowa and New Mexico to the 2004 states. Just doing that puts Obama at 264, just 6 points shy.

What will be the tipping point state? I would venture the following, in this rough order:

1) Colorado (9 points)
2) Virginia (13 points)
3) Ohio (20 points)
4) Florida (27 points)
5) Missouri (11 points)
6) Indiana (11 points)

If Obama wins Nevada, it would make it a 269-all split, in which case a stray electoral vote peeled away from Nebraska could affect the outcome.

But what if Obama loses both Ohio and Michigan (a much more likely scenario than Wisconsin or Minnesota moving)?

Losing Michigan would be a real disaster for the Dems. But not the end of the world.
Ohio & Michigan to the Repubs, Colorado and Virginia to the Dems would again result in a 269 split. The Dems would need a tiebreaker of some sort, most likely Nevada.

The key message here for the Dems is that they need to work Colorado and Virginia slightly more than Ohio and Florida, but they need to work Michigan most of all to keep it in the fold.

Quietly kicking ass

Biden hasn't gotten much coverage, but his stump speech on the campaign trail has been quietly kicking ass and taking names.

Check out these snippets from Michigan, New Hampshire, and Missouri.

Lower than Low

Watch for this story to get bigger in the next couple of days.

Shadowy operatives are running slimy push-polls (the same tactic used against McCain in South Carolina in 2000). These are aimed at Jewish voters, and ask what they would think of Obama if they knew he had donated to the PLO, and suchlike.

That's not change we can believe in!

Read about it here and here and here.

And different push polls in Ohio.

Colin Powell, sitting on the fence

Said today that an Obama win would be 'electrifying', though...

Check out these pics of McCain's mostly-empty rally

Yesterday, in Jacksonville, Florida, McCain without Sarah 'Lipstick' Palin got 3,000 people - in a 16,000 seat arena.

You won't see these pictures on TV!

Check the Fact Checkers

Okay, here are two good nonpartisan, unbiased Fact Check websites:

Politifact gave a 'Pants on Fire' rating to McCain for the following ads:

1) Obama was referring to Palin when he said 'lipstick on a pig'

2) Obama pushed to have 'comprehensive sex education for kindergartners'
(they wrote 'an absurd claim about a bill that never passed)

Politifact gave a 'barely true' rating to the following:

1) Palin's claim that she secured a 40-billion dollar gas pipeline

2) McCain's claim that Education Week said Obama hadn't made an impact on education

3) The claim that Palin 'stopped the Bridge to Nowhere'

And see this article by on the claim that Obama has been 'disrespectful' to Sarah Palin:

Funny stuff

McCain's campaign at the moment puts me in mind of the brilliant Frank Caliendo doing Al Pacino...

Check it out.

Liar, Liar, your pants...

are on FIAHHH!

Some good news

Obama is ahead in Virginia.

I am increasingly thinking that this election is going to be won or lost in Virginia and Colorado, not Ohio, Pennsylvania or Florida.

Obama has to hold on to Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota, but he can afford to lose Ohio and Florida, which he probably will.

But this Virginia poll, taken at a time which could have been McCain's peak, is very good news.

Note: slightly Republican-leaning Rasmussen has them tied in the Commonwealth on the same day.

Words to Barracuda eerily prescient

Okay, read the lyrics:

You lying so low in the weeds
I bet you gonna ambush me
You’d have me down, down, down, down on my knees
Now wouldn’t you, barracuda?
And if the real thing don’t do the trick
You better make up something quick
You gonna burn, burn, burn, burn, burn it to the wick
Ooh, barracuda!

Read about it here.

Musicians pissed off at McCain

Heart gets cease-and-desist order for Sarah Palin's use of the song 'Barracuda'.

Van Halen and John Mellencamp mad at McCain for similar reasons.

Read about it here.

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Back In Session

Okay, I have decided to funnel some of my nervous energy back in to the Session between now and the election.

For those of you who have been worrying about Obama running out of money, think again:

The Obama campaign raised $66 million in August, with half a million new donors.

And remember that Palin wasn't even announced until near the end of the month. I suspect that September will be even bigger for Obama, with Palin energizing many Dem's to donate.

His previous best month was sometime back in the spring, with 55 mil.

Check it out.