Thursday, January 31, 2008

Obama surging

The polls are coming in now. Gallup's tracking poll is starting to show the Edwards drop-out effect, as Hillary gained one point and Obama gained three. If Obama maintains a 3:1 ratio, it's bad news for HRC. THe new poll puts Obama only 4 points behind her.

And it's looking like Obama is likely to post big wins in the South along the lines of his South Carolina victory. He is ahead in Georgia, and now Alabama, where he has always been trailing.

Obama leads Hillary there 40-35, but note that 25% is a lot of undecideds...

Polls show race tightening

Almost all of our sense that Obama is narrowing the lead is coming from RAsmussen at this point, and I would like to see verification of this from other firms. For what it's worth, though:

Clinton 43%
Obama 40%
Edwards 9%

Clinton 43%
Obama 37%
Edwards 11%

Clinton 40%
Obama 40%
Edwards 11%

GEORGIA (25 Jan.)
Obama 41%
Clinton 35%

ALABAMA (25 Jan.)
Clinton 43%
Obama 28%

These also don't reflect Edwards' dropping out. Will Edwards endorse before Super Tuesday?

And what are the other pollsters saying?


Wednesday, January 30, 2008

New from Gallup

Hillary - 42
Obama - 36

How will the Edwards dropout affect this? I think it will split fairly evenly, actually...

The Veep Game

I've been thinking about vice presidential choices lately, and I think that Edwards is going to try and hold out his delegates and voters as bait to whoever will pick him - Obama or Clinton. I don't think they will pick him, however. I think Hillary wants to pick Bill Richardson; indeed, I think he'd make a good choice for either candidate. But HRC may pick Edwards if she thinks she needs him to clinch the nomination. There has been talk in the blogosphere about Edwards as a potential AG nominee, as well. It will be interesting to see what develops, and how this affects HRC and BHO's poll numbers heading into Super Tuesday.

Edwards is out.

He'll announce it today in NOLA. Where will his delegates go, and more importantly where will his voters go?

Obama poll numbers

Waiting for 'O'-mentum

We'll be watching Obama's poll numbers here at ProgressionSession, to see if his momentum out of South Carolina and his big-name endorsements by the Kennedy clan and Gov. Sebelius will help him. There are some indications of good news for Obama out there:

Rasmussen reports a tie in Connecticut between Hillary and the big B.O., both on 40%:

Compare this to the Hartford Courant's poll conducted Jan. 9 -17, showing a lead of 14 points for HRC.

This is potentially big news indeed, because HRC has been tipped to win the big three-state NYC-area trifecta. If this poll is a sign that he is making inroads in that region, it could be very good news for Obama. Also, a win or tie for him on Hillary's home turf would do wonders for his momentum.

Another potentially good sign for Barack: Colorado. A Denver Post poll taken before the Obama 'comeback' had Obama ahead of Clinton by two points (34-32; 19 for Edwards). This could mean that Obama is not as poor among Hispanics as Nevada suggested.

Obama is leading in Georgia by 6 points in the latest poll, suggesting that the black vote will carry him to victory there.

Kansas is a good place for Obama, as his mother is from there and he still has family there. There hasn't been a poll there in ages, but I suspect there will be soon, and it will show him in the lead.

Obama's lead among men may help in Alaska, which has a high male-female ratio, although Edwards could split this vote.

We have yet to see if the Kennedy endorsement helps O in Massachussetts, and likewise Daschle in the Dakotas, McAskill in Missouri and Napolitano in Arizona. Currently, he has an uphill battle in those states.

But there are indications that he is moving up in California, where this big delegate prize is. Real Clear Politics shows an average 12 point lead for HRC in recent polls. But the Huffington Post reports a huge effort by the Obama ground team there. Again, we await some new polls.

Nationally, the conventional wisdom is that Clinton's lead has slipped to single-digits.'s graph shows Obama gaining steadily with Hillary flatlining. But now he'll have to start taking numbers away from either Clinton or Edwards to close the gap.

Gallup's daily tracking poll shows the gap has narrowed to 34-43, but that is not noticeably better than earlier in the month, after Iowa. Obama will have to do better than this if he is to become the front-runner. But is there enought time?

I'll be watching and reporting on the polls over the next week to see if Obama's O-mentum starts reaping dividends for him.

The Session Is Back!

Today's big story: Clinton attempt to spin Florida fails.

Hillary's talking up of the no-delegate Florida election has failed to turn her 'win' there into a big news story. In fact, neither the New York Times, the Washington Post nor the L.A. Times have a picture on page 1. Most don't even have a story on the race. THis is good news for Obama, as he looks likely to hold on to the momentum for the time being. Hillary's win, it seems, relied heavily on postal absentee ballots, whereas Obama led among people who made up their minds in the last month. Obama wins this round of the spin war.