Obama poll numbers
Waiting for 'O'-mentum
We'll be watching Obama's poll numbers here at ProgressionSession, to see if his momentum out of South Carolina and his big-name endorsements by the Kennedy clan and Gov. Sebelius will help him. There are some indications of good news for Obama out there:
Rasmussen reports a tie in Connecticut between Hillary and the big B.O., both on 40%:
Compare this to the Hartford Courant's poll conducted Jan. 9 -17, showing a lead of 14 points for HRC.
This is potentially big news indeed, because HRC has been tipped to win the big three-state NYC-area trifecta. If this poll is a sign that he is making inroads in that region, it could be very good news for Obama. Also, a win or tie for him on Hillary's home turf would do wonders for his momentum.
Another potentially good sign for Barack: Colorado. A Denver Post poll taken before the Obama 'comeback' had Obama ahead of Clinton by two points (34-32; 19 for Edwards). This could mean that Obama is not as poor among Hispanics as Nevada suggested.
Obama is leading in Georgia by 6 points in the latest poll, suggesting that the black vote will carry him to victory there.
Kansas is a good place for Obama, as his mother is from there and he still has family there. There hasn't been a poll there in ages, but I suspect there will be soon, and it will show him in the lead.
Obama's lead among men may help in Alaska, which has a high male-female ratio, although Edwards could split this vote.
We have yet to see if the Kennedy endorsement helps O in Massachussetts, and likewise Daschle in the Dakotas, McAskill in Missouri and Napolitano in Arizona. Currently, he has an uphill battle in those states.
But there are indications that he is moving up in California, where this big delegate prize is. Real Clear Politics shows an average 12 point lead for HRC in recent polls. But the Huffington Post reports a huge effort by the Obama ground team there. Again, we await some new polls.
Nationally, the conventional wisdom is that Clinton's lead has slipped to single-digits. Pollster.com's graph shows Obama gaining steadily with Hillary flatlining. But now he'll have to start taking numbers away from either Clinton or Edwards to close the gap.
Gallup's daily tracking poll shows the gap has narrowed to 34-43, but that is not noticeably better than earlier in the month, after Iowa. Obama will have to do better than this if he is to become the front-runner. But is there enought time?
I'll be watching and reporting on the polls over the next week to see if Obama's O-mentum starts reaping dividends for him.
We'll be watching Obama's poll numbers here at ProgressionSession, to see if his momentum out of South Carolina and his big-name endorsements by the Kennedy clan and Gov. Sebelius will help him. There are some indications of good news for Obama out there:
Rasmussen reports a tie in Connecticut between Hillary and the big B.O., both on 40%:
Compare this to the Hartford Courant's poll conducted Jan. 9 -17, showing a lead of 14 points for HRC.
This is potentially big news indeed, because HRC has been tipped to win the big three-state NYC-area trifecta. If this poll is a sign that he is making inroads in that region, it could be very good news for Obama. Also, a win or tie for him on Hillary's home turf would do wonders for his momentum.
Another potentially good sign for Barack: Colorado. A Denver Post poll taken before the Obama 'comeback' had Obama ahead of Clinton by two points (34-32; 19 for Edwards). This could mean that Obama is not as poor among Hispanics as Nevada suggested.
Obama is leading in Georgia by 6 points in the latest poll, suggesting that the black vote will carry him to victory there.
Kansas is a good place for Obama, as his mother is from there and he still has family there. There hasn't been a poll there in ages, but I suspect there will be soon, and it will show him in the lead.
Obama's lead among men may help in Alaska, which has a high male-female ratio, although Edwards could split this vote.
We have yet to see if the Kennedy endorsement helps O in Massachussetts, and likewise Daschle in the Dakotas, McAskill in Missouri and Napolitano in Arizona. Currently, he has an uphill battle in those states.
But there are indications that he is moving up in California, where this big delegate prize is. Real Clear Politics shows an average 12 point lead for HRC in recent polls. But the Huffington Post reports a huge effort by the Obama ground team there. Again, we await some new polls.
Nationally, the conventional wisdom is that Clinton's lead has slipped to single-digits. Pollster.com's graph shows Obama gaining steadily with Hillary flatlining. But now he'll have to start taking numbers away from either Clinton or Edwards to close the gap.
Gallup's daily tracking poll shows the gap has narrowed to 34-43, but that is not noticeably better than earlier in the month, after Iowa. Obama will have to do better than this if he is to become the front-runner. But is there enought time?
I'll be watching and reporting on the polls over the next week to see if Obama's O-mentum starts reaping dividends for him.
posted by Matthew at 10:48 AM
3 Comments:
I like it..."O-mentum"
Did you think that up yourself or is that going around somewhere? They should be using that phrase every chance they get. NICE!
For Immediate Release
January 30, 2008
LARGEST INDEPENDENT VOTER ORGANIZATION IN CALIFORNIA ENDORSES OBAMA
LOS ANGELES – IndependentVoice.org, California’s largest organization of independent voters, has endorsed Senator Barack Obama for President in the open Democratic primary on February 5. The endorsement of the 200,000 member organization could impact significantly on the outcome of the primary, with close to 20% of Democratic primary voters expected to be decline-to-state independents.
Obama has racked up double-digit leads among independents in the Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries. In South Carolina, 23% of Democratic primary voters were independents and Obama won 42% of their vote, almost twice as many votes as received by Hillary Clinton.
Media outlets and political analysts agree that independents will determine the outcome of the California and New Jersey primaries. Fifteen out of the twenty-four Democratic Party contests on Tsunami Tuesday are “open,” allowing independents to participate.
“We are independents because we are making a statement against the insider culture, against the old political paradigm and against partisanship,” stated Jim Mangia, Chair of IndependentVoice.Org. “That is why we independents feel so close to the ideas and vision expressed by Barack Obama. He is a change agent who understands that real change, real transformation comes from the people, not the politicians!”
You write very well.
Post a Comment
<< Home