Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Dems to blame for the subprime fiasco?

Not so fast.

Really worth a read.

And if you haven't seen 60 Minutes' piece on the multi-trillion dollar unregulated shadow market on Wall Street, go watch it now.

Friday, October 03, 2008

If McCain was so opposed to Senate Concurrent Resolution 70...

This is the bill that supposedly raised taxes on people making 42,000 dollars a year.

But if McCain was so against it, why did he not bother to vote either in March or in June?

Is Obama a Muslin?

I really think this sign says it all. I don't know what it says for the town of Barefoot Bay, Florida. I think it actually helps Obama more than harms him, if this is his opposition.

Not Channel 77?

Drudge viewers think Palin won

Homer Simpson voting for Obama

Things that make you go Hmm....

Who 'won' the debate?

CNN's focus group: Biden 51, Palin 36

CBS's instant poll: Biden 46, Palin 21

Fox and Frank Luntz's focus group at Anheuser-Busch headquarters: no numbers, but nearly everybody thought Palin won.

What gives? Is this all the game of low expectations?

I predict a small bump for McCain in the polls in the next couple of days, but basically this will stop the bleeding a bit more than anything else.


Thursday, October 02, 2008

Don't Trust Real Clear Politics

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Colorado looking better and better for Obama

Remember, Obama wins if he holds onto the Kerry states from 2004 and adds Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado.

Which Kerry states will Obama struggle the most to hold onto?

1) Pennsylvania. With 21 electoral votes, this one is a must-win.

Pollster.com gives Obama only a 2.4% lead, taking the average of several polls. Real Clear Politics gives Obama a 3.3% lead.

2) New Hampshire. With only 4 electoral votes, Obama could lose this state and still win the election. But if NH goes to McCain, where else will?

Pollster puts McCain up 1.2 points, while RCP gives Obama a 2-point edge.

3) Michigan. If Obama loses here, he will need to win a big state like Florida to make up the electoral votes. Michigan is solidifying for him in recent polls, and RCP gives Obama a 3.9% advantage.

4) Minnesota. THis one was supposed to be in the bag for the Dems, but RCP gives Obama only a 2.8 percent lead. Pollster makes is 3.2%.

Now, what about those three states Obama needs to pick up?

1) Iowa. Bush won this state in 2004, but Obama has a stranglehold on this most Caucasian of Caucus states. Pollster gives him a wopping 10-point edge, and RCP makes it 9.4%.

2) New Mexico. Bush won this state by the narrowest of margins in 2004. Obama is up 6 points, according to RCP, and 6.2 %, according to Pollster.com.


Check out these recent polls:

Sept. 24:
Rasmussen +3 Obama
CNN +4 Obama
Insider Advantage +9 Obama

Sept. 23:
PPP +7 Obama
Quinnipiac +4 Obama

So, if Obama holds onto Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan and Minnesota, and wins Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado (all of which look likely), the result is this:

Obama 273
McCain 265

Keep in mind that this scenario allows McCain to win Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Indiana and Nevada - all states where Obama is competitive.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008


Obama breaks 50 in this new WaPo/ ABC News Poll.

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Battle of the Databases?

Read about Catalist, the mega-database the Dem's are hoping will allow them to compete with the GOP's ground game more effectively.

Ground Game Update

This article by Sean Quinn at 538.com has him walking the streets of Durango, Colorado. The Gore and Kerry campaigns didn't even have an office there, but check out what the Obama team has done.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Florida, North Carolina, Indiana still in play

CNN/ Sept 17
Obama 48
McCain 48

CNN/ Sept 17
Obama 47
McCain 48

Selzer/ Sept 17
Obama 47
McCain 44

CNN/ Sept 17
Obama 45
McCain 51