I've been talking to a lot of people who say that Obama will take the Democratic nomination - eventually - but will be so hammered into the ground that McCain will win in November. They say that he will be another McGovern, another Hart, another John Kerry.
But I don't buy it. Remember how, just a couple of months ago, people were writing about the death of the Republican party, and how they were so fractured they would never come together under John McCain? A month is a decade in politics. If the Dem's wrap things up in June, all this hand-wringing will be a distant memory by the time of the first general election debate.
And this really isn't like previous election years. People actually are genuinely tired of negative political campaigns. And then there's this:
"""
The past seven states to hold primaries registered
more than 1 million new Democratic voters; Republican numbers mainly ebbed or stagnated. North Carolina and Indiana, which will hold their presidential primaries on May 6, are reporting a swell of new Democrats that triples the surge in registrations before the 2004 primary.
Those people aren't stupid. They want the war to end. They want health care. They want transparency, accountability and integrity in government. They want it bad. They aren't going to stay home just so they can make a point.
So, everybody take a breather, see how May 6th plays out. I personally think, as reported on Politico.com, that the superdels will declare themselves after all the states have voted. If Obama wins with more than the margin that the Florida delegates would have given Hillary, then she will probably concede. If Obama keeps tanking, the superdels will opt for Hillary. Either way, a Democrat is moving to Pennsylvania Avenue.
"""
