Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Secret Supers for Obama?

This is not the first time I've heard hints of this - that Obama has enough superdelegates squirreled away, and that they are just waiting for the primaries to be over before they declare themselves. This time it comes from Sen. McAskill of Missouri. I guess we'll just have to wait and see...

Monday, April 28, 2008

Oh dear.

Yes, Obama can win the general election

I've been talking to a lot of people who say that Obama will take the Democratic nomination - eventually - but will be so hammered into the ground that McCain will win in November. They say that he will be another McGovern, another Hart, another John Kerry.

But I don't buy it. Remember how, just a couple of months ago, people were writing about the death of the Republican party, and how they were so fractured they would never come together under John McCain? A month is a decade in politics. If the Dem's wrap things up in June, all this hand-wringing will be a distant memory by the time of the first general election debate.

And this really isn't like previous election years. People actually are genuinely tired of negative political campaigns. And then there's this:

The past seven states to hold primaries registered more than 1 million new Democratic voters; Republican numbers mainly ebbed or stagnated. North Carolina and Indiana, which will hold their presidential primaries on May 6, are reporting a swell of new Democrats that triples the surge in registrations before the 2004 primary.

Those people aren't stupid. They want the war to end. They want health care. They want transparency, accountability and integrity in government. They want it bad. They aren't going to stay home just so they can make a point.

So, everybody take a breather, see how May 6th plays out. I personally think, as reported on, that the superdels will declare themselves after all the states have voted. If Obama wins with more than the margin that the Florida delegates would have given Hillary, then she will probably concede. If Obama keeps tanking, the superdels will opt for Hillary. Either way, a Democrat is moving to Pennsylvania Avenue.


Thursday, April 24, 2008

RIP, Danny Federici

Hey Eddie, can you lend me a few bucks
And tonight can you get us a ride
Gotta make it through the tunnel
Got a meeting with a man on the other side

Monday, April 07, 2008

Dead Heat in Pennsylvania

New ARG poll (6 April)

Clinton 45%
Obama 45%
Undecided or someone else 10%

That is up from a 51/39 split in their last poll (March 27).

Friday, April 04, 2008

Obama closing the gap in Penn, Indiana


April 1, Survey USA (+9)
Clinton 52
Obama 43

April 3, Research 2000 (+3)
Clinton 49
Obama 46


April 1, Rasmussen (+5)
Clinton 47
Obama 42

April 1, Survey USA (+12)
Clinton 53
Obama 41

April 2, Quinnipiac (+9)
Clinton 50
Obama 41

April 2, PPP (-2)
Obama 45
Clinton 43

April 3, Strategic Vision (+8)
Clinton 49
Obama 41

April 3, Insider Adv (+2)
Clinton 45
Obama 43

Wednesday, April 02, 2008

By the way...

MSNBC seems to be the only news channel where the political shows involve people talking to each other like adults much of the time.

I guess that's why it's ratings are so low.

First time since 2001, CNN beats Fox.

As much as I dislike CNN for its really pathetically bad quality journalism much of the time, and its insistence on eye-candy over brains and talent in its newsreaders and presenters, I would still rather have mediocre over pure propagandistic evil.

In the first quarter of 2008:

CNN - viewers 25-54 (because young people and old people apparently don't count!):
up 90%

MSNBC - up 68%

FOX News - up 12%

Among total viewers, apparently, Fox is still ahead:
Fox up 14%
CNN up 68%
MSNBC up 59%.

Off to the races

So, where do the two candidates stand in the running for the remaining Democratic primaries? Let's check the polls.


Clinton 47%
Obama 42%
Und. 11%
(Rasmussen. Apr. 1)

Clinton 53%
Obama 41%
Und. 6%
(Survey USA. Apr. 1)

GUAM. May 3rd.

You guess is as good as mine for this caucus.

INDIANA. May 6th.

Clinton 52%
Obama 43%
Und. 5%
(Survey USA, Apr. 1)


Real Clear Politics average of polls by PPP, Insider Advantage, Survey USA and Rasmussen covering period since March 6th gives the following:

Obama 49.8
Clinton 37.8
Und. 12.4


Clinton 55%
Obama 27%
Und. 18%
(Rasmussen. Mar. 20th)

KENTUCKY. May 20th.

Clinton 58%
Obama 29%
Und. 13%
(Survey USA. Mar. 31st)

OREGON. May 20th.

No polls since January. Obama is widely seen as having an advantage here.

PUERTO RICO. June 1st.

No polls available. Clinton is widely seen as having an advantage here.

MONTANA. June 3rd.

No polls since December. Obama is widely seen as having an advantage here.


No polls available. Obama is widely seen as having an advantage here.