Thursday, September 25, 2008

Colorado looking better and better for Obama

Remember, Obama wins if he holds onto the Kerry states from 2004 and adds Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado.

Which Kerry states will Obama struggle the most to hold onto?

1) Pennsylvania. With 21 electoral votes, this one is a must-win. gives Obama only a 2.4% lead, taking the average of several polls. Real Clear Politics gives Obama a 3.3% lead.

2) New Hampshire. With only 4 electoral votes, Obama could lose this state and still win the election. But if NH goes to McCain, where else will?

Pollster puts McCain up 1.2 points, while RCP gives Obama a 2-point edge.

3) Michigan. If Obama loses here, he will need to win a big state like Florida to make up the electoral votes. Michigan is solidifying for him in recent polls, and RCP gives Obama a 3.9% advantage.

4) Minnesota. THis one was supposed to be in the bag for the Dems, but RCP gives Obama only a 2.8 percent lead. Pollster makes is 3.2%.

Now, what about those three states Obama needs to pick up?

1) Iowa. Bush won this state in 2004, but Obama has a stranglehold on this most Caucasian of Caucus states. Pollster gives him a wopping 10-point edge, and RCP makes it 9.4%.

2) New Mexico. Bush won this state by the narrowest of margins in 2004. Obama is up 6 points, according to RCP, and 6.2 %, according to


Check out these recent polls:

Sept. 24:
Rasmussen +3 Obama
CNN +4 Obama
Insider Advantage +9 Obama

Sept. 23:
PPP +7 Obama
Quinnipiac +4 Obama

So, if Obama holds onto Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan and Minnesota, and wins Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado (all of which look likely), the result is this:

Obama 273
McCain 265

Keep in mind that this scenario allows McCain to win Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Indiana and Nevada - all states where Obama is competitive.


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