A way to move on.

Let's look a little more at where things might stand after May 6th.

Let's take my earlier scenario and say that Obama does pretty well and loses Penn. by 8 points, wins NC by ten points and Indiana by 4 points. What would the delegate situation be then? Let's also say there's a tie in Guam.

Pledged delegates gained in these 4 primaries:
Obama - 175
Clinton - 174

Each candidate currently stands at (in pledged delegates):
Obama - 1406
Clinton - 1249

Where the candidates would stand in pledged del's on May 7th:
Obama - 1581
Clinton - 1423

Let's add in the superdelegates who have already declared:
Obama - 209
Clinton - 246

Giving a potential total on May 7th of:
Obama - 1790
Clinton - 1669.

Today, the difference between them is 120 delegates.
On May 7th, the difference might potentially be 121 delegates.
So the gap is likely to stay the same.

Now, the total number of votes a candidate needs to clinch the nomination is 2024.

Obama might be 234 votes short on May 7th. There are 339 undeclared superdelegates, not including Michigan and Florida. If 234 of them came out on May 7th and endorsed Obama, this thing would be over.

While that is unlikely, it is true that a significant group of superdelegates acting en masse could wrap things up. I thing this would be better happening in mid-May than mid-June. Even if 100 new superdelegates came out in support of Obama, then we could avoid a months-long protracted battle. If 100 superdelegates came out for Obama, he would have an insurmountable lead of 220, and it would be over.

Who knows? Anything could happen. Thoughts?