Tuesday, March 25, 2008

ELECTORAL MATH

Okay, I've already shown how Obama can win the general election even if he loses the traditional swing states of Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. He would have to win traditional swing states of New Mexico and Iowa as well as Nevada, Colorado and Virginia. Nevada and Colorado are more likely if he picks Bill Richardson as veep; Virginia is more likely if he picks Kaine, the governor of Virginia.

What would be the best case scenario? I'v already said that there could be a very close electoral race with a popular vote blowout, based on indications of record Democratic turnout and the likelihood of much tighter margins in red states in the South, as well as some Plains red states like Nebraska and Kansas, where Obama has been polling higher than Dems usually do.

But the best case scenario for me would be a blowout all the way. In electoral votes, that would mean sweeping the states I outlined above, plus North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and North Carolina. That would result in a 356 - 182 victory for the Democrats. Likely? No. Possible? Yes.

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