Pennsylvaniac
A quandary has developed. Prominent journalists and pundits like Adam Nagourney and the folks at Politico.com are saying that Hillary is all but finished. On the other hand, Pennsylvania, which votes on April 22nd, is strongly favored to go to Hillary, and the Obama campaign has been working hard to lower expectations. The latest poll there has Hillary winning by 26 points.
The big argument here is that Democrats need Pennsylvania to win in November. It was one of the few very close swing states (unlike Ohio, Missouri, New Mexico, and Iowa) that actually went for Kerry in 2004.
Using the handy-dandy Electoral Vote calculator at the Wall Street Journal's Opinion Journal [now owned by He Whose Name Shall Not Be Mentioned], let's look at Obama's chances, and how we might redraw the political map.
Starting with the 2004 results [by the way it's snowing outside my window], the Dems got 252 to the GOP's 286. If the Dems had won Ohio [no comment, Mr Blackwell], they would have won the contest by 272/266. But how might Obama change the electoral landscape?
Well, let's check out scenarios using the big swing states from the last couple times:
FLORIDA
IOWA
NEW MEXICO
PENNSYLVANIA
OHIO
The GOP would like to say that Minnesota and Michigan are trending Republican, but I don't rate them as seriously in play this year, when larger trends are favoring the Democrats. I also think that New Hampshire will stay blue, mainly due to McCain's strong Iraq War 4Evr policy. Okeedoke.
The Republicans are going to win Florida, and that probably would be true even if the DNC hadn'r refused to seat their delegates or the fact that the Republican Secretary of State (paging the ghost of Katherine Harris's past facelifts) still run the show (statewide recount? why would we want to that? Okay, I'm not bitter)
Right. McCain is spending a lot of time with Joe Lieberman, going on trips to Israel, while Jeremiah Wright tapes slamming 'state terrorism' by Israel circulate. McCain is going for the Jewish vote; he's going for the elderly vote and he's going for Florida. The last poll there put him 11 points ahead, and he'll probably win it.
Will Obama win any states in the South? MAybe. We'll come back to that.
Let's go out west. Even though Oregon and Washington are pretty evenly split between Dems and Repubs, they've gone blue the last two time and will continue to do so this time around. New Mexico - razor thin wins for the Dems in 2000 and the GOP in 2004. This time it will go strongly for Obama, particularly if he names Bill Richardson as his veep, which I have been saying for weeks that he will. This looks particularly liekly after last week's endorsement. Obama needs help among Hispanic voters, and Richardson has tons of foreign policy experience. Good stuff all around in my opinion. Let's put New Mexico in the Dem column. What's more, a 50-state Survey USA poll out in early March gave Obama the win there by 7 points.
In the Midwest, Obama can count on Iowa. They supported him strongly in the caucus, if that counts for anything. That Survey USA poll had Obama winning by 9 points.
Missouri is not looking so good for Obama. I think McCain will take it.
With this scenario, Florida going to McCain and New Mexico and Iowa going to Obama, the numbers are such:
McCain: 254
Obama: 243
unallocated: 41
That leaves Ohio and Pennsylvania. If we follow the 2004 pattern and give PA to Obama and OH to McCain, the numbers are:
McCain: 274
Obama: 264
So, Obama would have to take Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa and New Mexico, leaving Florida and Missouri to McCain. That is a plausible scenario. But is it possible for Obama to win without making a strong showing Pennsylvania?
Is it true that Democrats need to win Pennsylvania to win in November?
Not necessarily. New states are in play.
That Survey USA poll gave Obama North Dakota by 4 points, Nevada by 5 points and Colorado by nine points? How does this scenario play out?
If Obama wins any one of those states and Ohio, he doesn't need to win in Florida, Missouri or Pennsylvania. If he wins Colorado and either Nevada or North Dakota and Virginia, he doesn't need Ohio, either. That poll put McCain and Obama tied for Virginia.
Obama is unlikely to win any other Southern state, although that poll put him only two points behind in North Carolina. On the other hand, he is likely to make Georgia, South Carolina, Mississippi and Louisiana very close. This will drive up the popular vote and may mean that Obama swings a relatively narrow electoral victory but with a big popular vote mandate.
Amazingly, that poll put Obama within reach in South Dakota (4 points) and Nebraska (3 points), but I don't see that happening, especially with Jeremiah Wright out of the bag. That poll also put New Hampshire and New Jersey in play for the GOP, but I see them swinging left in November.
So, what is my actual prediction? I'll be slightly optomistic, and say that Obama takes Pennsylvania and Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada, losing North Dakota, Virginia and Florida narrowly. What would that give in electoral votes?
Obama:298
McCain:240
The same setup, with the GOP winning the Pennsylvaniacs?
Obama:277
McCain:261
What do you think?
The big argument here is that Democrats need Pennsylvania to win in November. It was one of the few very close swing states (unlike Ohio, Missouri, New Mexico, and Iowa) that actually went for Kerry in 2004.
Using the handy-dandy Electoral Vote calculator at the Wall Street Journal's Opinion Journal [now owned by He Whose Name Shall Not Be Mentioned], let's look at Obama's chances, and how we might redraw the political map.
Starting with the 2004 results [by the way it's snowing outside my window], the Dems got 252 to the GOP's 286. If the Dems had won Ohio [no comment, Mr Blackwell], they would have won the contest by 272/266. But how might Obama change the electoral landscape?
Well, let's check out scenarios using the big swing states from the last couple times:
FLORIDA
IOWA
NEW MEXICO
PENNSYLVANIA
OHIO
The GOP would like to say that Minnesota and Michigan are trending Republican, but I don't rate them as seriously in play this year, when larger trends are favoring the Democrats. I also think that New Hampshire will stay blue, mainly due to McCain's strong Iraq War 4Evr policy. Okeedoke.
The Republicans are going to win Florida, and that probably would be true even if the DNC hadn'r refused to seat their delegates or the fact that the Republican Secretary of State (paging the ghost of Katherine Harris's past facelifts) still run the show (statewide recount? why would we want to that? Okay, I'm not bitter)
Right. McCain is spending a lot of time with Joe Lieberman, going on trips to Israel, while Jeremiah Wright tapes slamming 'state terrorism' by Israel circulate. McCain is going for the Jewish vote; he's going for the elderly vote and he's going for Florida. The last poll there put him 11 points ahead, and he'll probably win it.
Will Obama win any states in the South? MAybe. We'll come back to that.
Let's go out west. Even though Oregon and Washington are pretty evenly split between Dems and Repubs, they've gone blue the last two time and will continue to do so this time around. New Mexico - razor thin wins for the Dems in 2000 and the GOP in 2004. This time it will go strongly for Obama, particularly if he names Bill Richardson as his veep, which I have been saying for weeks that he will. This looks particularly liekly after last week's endorsement. Obama needs help among Hispanic voters, and Richardson has tons of foreign policy experience. Good stuff all around in my opinion. Let's put New Mexico in the Dem column. What's more, a 50-state Survey USA poll out in early March gave Obama the win there by 7 points.
In the Midwest, Obama can count on Iowa. They supported him strongly in the caucus, if that counts for anything. That Survey USA poll had Obama winning by 9 points.
Missouri is not looking so good for Obama. I think McCain will take it.
With this scenario, Florida going to McCain and New Mexico and Iowa going to Obama, the numbers are such:
McCain: 254
Obama: 243
unallocated: 41
That leaves Ohio and Pennsylvania. If we follow the 2004 pattern and give PA to Obama and OH to McCain, the numbers are:
McCain: 274
Obama: 264
So, Obama would have to take Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa and New Mexico, leaving Florida and Missouri to McCain. That is a plausible scenario. But is it possible for Obama to win without making a strong showing Pennsylvania?
Is it true that Democrats need to win Pennsylvania to win in November?
Not necessarily. New states are in play.
That Survey USA poll gave Obama North Dakota by 4 points, Nevada by 5 points and Colorado by nine points? How does this scenario play out?
If Obama wins any one of those states and Ohio, he doesn't need to win in Florida, Missouri or Pennsylvania. If he wins Colorado and either Nevada or North Dakota and Virginia, he doesn't need Ohio, either. That poll put McCain and Obama tied for Virginia.
Obama is unlikely to win any other Southern state, although that poll put him only two points behind in North Carolina. On the other hand, he is likely to make Georgia, South Carolina, Mississippi and Louisiana very close. This will drive up the popular vote and may mean that Obama swings a relatively narrow electoral victory but with a big popular vote mandate.
Amazingly, that poll put Obama within reach in South Dakota (4 points) and Nebraska (3 points), but I don't see that happening, especially with Jeremiah Wright out of the bag. That poll also put New Hampshire and New Jersey in play for the GOP, but I see them swinging left in November.
So, what is my actual prediction? I'll be slightly optomistic, and say that Obama takes Pennsylvania and Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada, losing North Dakota, Virginia and Florida narrowly. What would that give in electoral votes?
Obama:298
McCain:240
The same setup, with the GOP winning the Pennsylvaniacs?
Obama:277
McCain:261
What do you think?
posted by Matthew at 1:02 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home