Polls this week suggest strong recovery from Obama
We have been waiting for polls to come out that show the effect of Obama's big speech on race. Nearly 3 and a half million people have watched that speech on YouTube now.
Anyway, polls are showing a pretty strong recovery.
In national polls against Clinton:
Gallup Tracking: Obama has held small lead (1-3 points) over Clinton since last Thursday, after five days of Clinton taking a small lead. They are for all intents and purposes still neck-and-neck, as they have been for weeks.
Rasmussen Tracking: Clinton has had a 1-3 point lead since the 22nd.
There haven't been any 'one-off' polls with data collected in the last week to 10 days, and these polls have tighter methodologies and a larger sample size. I am curious what the next Gallup, CNN, CBS and Newsweek polls might show, but I'm sure it will still be very close.
DEMOCRATS VERSUS McCAIN:
The latest polls show McCain opening up a lead versus Democrats. Arguably, this is because Democrats are ripping each other apart while McCain is travelling around the world acting presidential. I still think this isn't something to worry about too much, but Dems need to get their act together soon...
UPCOMING PRIMARIES:
Pennsylvania. The newest poll, a Rasmussen poll taken after Obama's speech, has Clinton 49- Obama 39.
North Carolina. A PPP poll, out today, gives Obama a whopping 21-point lead over Clinton, 55-34. Even if all the undecideds broke for Hillary, Obama would have a ten-point win over Clinton.
Indiana. Like NC, this red state votes on May 6th. There aren't any recent polls for Indiana, but 20% of the state is in the Chicago media market and Obama is favored to win the state, albeit perhaps narrowly.
MY QUESTION IS THIS:
If Obama closes the gap in Pennsylvania and loses the state by a small margin than predicted, say 5-10%, and wins North Carolina soundly, say 10%, and then takes Indiana, will that have proved his 'electability'? Will Clinton concede at that point? Again, I wouldn't necessarily mind this if I thought Hillary could win this in a way that didn't seem undemocratic and turn off loads of first-time voters. I wouldn't necessarily mind this thing going to a brokered convention if there was an honest path to her nomination. (Yes, Michigan and Florida should have revoted, but that's just the way the cookie crumbles. It was very unlikely after everything that happened that the two campaigns were going to agree on anything) We're getting our asses kicked by the Republicans, and we should be out there fighting them. Instead, the Clinton campaign is out there implying that McCain would be a better president than Obama.
What do you think? How big would Obama have to win for Hillary to bow out gracefully?
Anyway, polls are showing a pretty strong recovery.
In national polls against Clinton:
Gallup Tracking: Obama has held small lead (1-3 points) over Clinton since last Thursday, after five days of Clinton taking a small lead. They are for all intents and purposes still neck-and-neck, as they have been for weeks.
Rasmussen Tracking: Clinton has had a 1-3 point lead since the 22nd.
There haven't been any 'one-off' polls with data collected in the last week to 10 days, and these polls have tighter methodologies and a larger sample size. I am curious what the next Gallup, CNN, CBS and Newsweek polls might show, but I'm sure it will still be very close.
DEMOCRATS VERSUS McCAIN:
The latest polls show McCain opening up a lead versus Democrats. Arguably, this is because Democrats are ripping each other apart while McCain is travelling around the world acting presidential. I still think this isn't something to worry about too much, but Dems need to get their act together soon...
UPCOMING PRIMARIES:
Pennsylvania. The newest poll, a Rasmussen poll taken after Obama's speech, has Clinton 49- Obama 39.
North Carolina. A PPP poll, out today, gives Obama a whopping 21-point lead over Clinton, 55-34. Even if all the undecideds broke for Hillary, Obama would have a ten-point win over Clinton.
Indiana. Like NC, this red state votes on May 6th. There aren't any recent polls for Indiana, but 20% of the state is in the Chicago media market and Obama is favored to win the state, albeit perhaps narrowly.
MY QUESTION IS THIS:
If Obama closes the gap in Pennsylvania and loses the state by a small margin than predicted, say 5-10%, and wins North Carolina soundly, say 10%, and then takes Indiana, will that have proved his 'electability'? Will Clinton concede at that point? Again, I wouldn't necessarily mind this if I thought Hillary could win this in a way that didn't seem undemocratic and turn off loads of first-time voters. I wouldn't necessarily mind this thing going to a brokered convention if there was an honest path to her nomination. (Yes, Michigan and Florida should have revoted, but that's just the way the cookie crumbles. It was very unlikely after everything that happened that the two campaigns were going to agree on anything) We're getting our asses kicked by the Republicans, and we should be out there fighting them. Instead, the Clinton campaign is out there implying that McCain would be a better president than Obama.
What do you think? How big would Obama have to win for Hillary to bow out gracefully?
posted by Matthew at 11:49 AM
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