FINAL ASSESSMENT - SENATE
Based on the most recent polls, and other factors such as media stories, ballot initiatives and public mood, here are my final calls for the US Senate:
DEMOCRATS will easily hold onto their seats in California, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Massachussetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin.
REPUBLICANS will easily hold onto their seats in Indiana, Maine, Mississippi, Nevada, Texas, Utah and Wyoming.
VERMONT will continue to have a liberal independent senator.
CONNECTCUT will technically become independent as well, as Joe Lieberman ekes out a victory. I still predict less than a plurality with lazy GOP voters giving Schlesinger (straight party ticket) a good 10%. Lamont on 40. For a weak candidate, he done good. Lieberman will return to the Democratic fold, but will continue to vote with Republicans on some security issues. If the Dems get their 51 guys. Republicans will beg, cheat and steal to get Lieberman to switch sides.
BIG DEMOCRATIC BLOWOUTS: The most satisfying thumpings for Democrats will be in Ohio, where Sherrod Brown will best DeWine by a good ten points, and in Pennsylvania, where ultra-conservative boob Rick Santorum will be sent packing by Bob Casey.
REPUBLICANS WILL HOLD ON by the skin of their teeth in Arizona. Despite the minimum wage ballot initiative and the popularity of Democratic governor Napolitano, Kyl will scrape by this time to hold on in Arizona. Despite the rising star of Harold Ford junior in Tennessee, Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker will pull through in Tennessee, helped along by that anti-gay marriage initiative and a little latent racism.
VERY CLOSE RACES:
MONTANA: THE BIG-ASS SKY STATE
On Tester's side, we have that minimum wage initiative, Conrad Burns' sleaze allegations, and the fact that Burns is a grade-A moron.
On Burns' side, we have the fact that he has successfully painted Tester as too liberal for a red-meat red state. This will be a nailbiter. Bush showed up to rally the masses, but the Dems are spending big-time to get a ground operation happening in Montana. The latest Gallup poll, though, has Tester regaining some of his lead, at 50-41. As he has maintained his lead throughout more or less, I'm calling this one for Tester and the Dems.
RHODE ISLAND AND THE PROVIDENCE PLANTATIONS
In the home of the liquid cabinet, look for Lincoln Chafee to go down to Whitehouse by a hair. Gallup has Whitehouse ahead by three, and Democrats in general are surging in the Northeast this year. Anti-incumbency, anti-Bush, anti-Congress: the cards are stacked against this moderate Republican this time around.
NEW JOISEY
After a real challenge from Kean, appointed and none-too-perfect Dem candidate Robert Menendez is on the comeback trail. Recent polls show him leading by a good five or six points. Anti-Republican sentiment should let him cruise to victory.
MARYLAND
Another weak Democratic candidate, Cardin, against a really savvy campaign, according to the experts, from Michael Steele. Recent polls show Cardin leading by a few points. The only thing saving Cardin is that this is a blue state in a blue year. Another probably undeserved Democratic victory here. (Of course, compare this to the undeserved Republican victories by incumbents in Mississippi, Texas and Utah!).
THE OLD DOMINION OF VIRGINIA
George Allen has been on self-destruct mode this whole campaign. How did this guy ever get to be a politician: in addition to being a racist, he's also a total asshole. I mean, who picks a fight with their opponent's Asian- minority errand boy? Who responds, after finding out that he has Jewish background, that he'd really feel like having a ham sandwich right about now? Webb looks good on paper but has the personality of oatmeal. Basically, Webb has got himself a lead by just watching Allen shoot himself in the foot. Webb was in the Reagan administration, was in the Navy, has the respect of the military. He's got a significant lead in one last minute poll, but is tied in another. I'm going out on a limb to say that anti-Bush feeling among independents is going to push Webb over the top.
MISERY. OH, I'M SORRY, MISER-UH.
Neck and neck the whole way, both really capable candidates. Talent barely squeezed through for election last time around, and that was before Iraq blew up. This time, there's stem cell and minimum wage on the ballot, a huge Democratic GOTV operation, and polls that show McCAskill pulling ahead. I say she takes it, by a hair.
IT'S THE FINAL COUNTDOWN...
Counting Independents in Vermont and Connecticut as Democrats, then, we will see a Democratic majority in the Senate, at 51-49, as the Blues pull through in Montana, Missouri, and Virginia.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
DEMOCRATS will easily hold onto their seats in California, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Massachussetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin.
REPUBLICANS will easily hold onto their seats in Indiana, Maine, Mississippi, Nevada, Texas, Utah and Wyoming.
VERMONT will continue to have a liberal independent senator.
CONNECTCUT will technically become independent as well, as Joe Lieberman ekes out a victory. I still predict less than a plurality with lazy GOP voters giving Schlesinger (straight party ticket) a good 10%. Lamont on 40. For a weak candidate, he done good. Lieberman will return to the Democratic fold, but will continue to vote with Republicans on some security issues. If the Dems get their 51 guys. Republicans will beg, cheat and steal to get Lieberman to switch sides.
BIG DEMOCRATIC BLOWOUTS: The most satisfying thumpings for Democrats will be in Ohio, where Sherrod Brown will best DeWine by a good ten points, and in Pennsylvania, where ultra-conservative boob Rick Santorum will be sent packing by Bob Casey.
REPUBLICANS WILL HOLD ON by the skin of their teeth in Arizona. Despite the minimum wage ballot initiative and the popularity of Democratic governor Napolitano, Kyl will scrape by this time to hold on in Arizona. Despite the rising star of Harold Ford junior in Tennessee, Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker will pull through in Tennessee, helped along by that anti-gay marriage initiative and a little latent racism.
VERY CLOSE RACES:
MONTANA: THE BIG-ASS SKY STATE
On Tester's side, we have that minimum wage initiative, Conrad Burns' sleaze allegations, and the fact that Burns is a grade-A moron.
On Burns' side, we have the fact that he has successfully painted Tester as too liberal for a red-meat red state. This will be a nailbiter. Bush showed up to rally the masses, but the Dems are spending big-time to get a ground operation happening in Montana. The latest Gallup poll, though, has Tester regaining some of his lead, at 50-41. As he has maintained his lead throughout more or less, I'm calling this one for Tester and the Dems.
RHODE ISLAND AND THE PROVIDENCE PLANTATIONS
In the home of the liquid cabinet, look for Lincoln Chafee to go down to Whitehouse by a hair. Gallup has Whitehouse ahead by three, and Democrats in general are surging in the Northeast this year. Anti-incumbency, anti-Bush, anti-Congress: the cards are stacked against this moderate Republican this time around.
NEW JOISEY
After a real challenge from Kean, appointed and none-too-perfect Dem candidate Robert Menendez is on the comeback trail. Recent polls show him leading by a good five or six points. Anti-Republican sentiment should let him cruise to victory.
MARYLAND
Another weak Democratic candidate, Cardin, against a really savvy campaign, according to the experts, from Michael Steele. Recent polls show Cardin leading by a few points. The only thing saving Cardin is that this is a blue state in a blue year. Another probably undeserved Democratic victory here. (Of course, compare this to the undeserved Republican victories by incumbents in Mississippi, Texas and Utah!).
THE OLD DOMINION OF VIRGINIA
George Allen has been on self-destruct mode this whole campaign. How did this guy ever get to be a politician: in addition to being a racist, he's also a total asshole. I mean, who picks a fight with their opponent's Asian- minority errand boy? Who responds, after finding out that he has Jewish background, that he'd really feel like having a ham sandwich right about now? Webb looks good on paper but has the personality of oatmeal. Basically, Webb has got himself a lead by just watching Allen shoot himself in the foot. Webb was in the Reagan administration, was in the Navy, has the respect of the military. He's got a significant lead in one last minute poll, but is tied in another. I'm going out on a limb to say that anti-Bush feeling among independents is going to push Webb over the top.
MISERY. OH, I'M SORRY, MISER-UH.
Neck and neck the whole way, both really capable candidates. Talent barely squeezed through for election last time around, and that was before Iraq blew up. This time, there's stem cell and minimum wage on the ballot, a huge Democratic GOTV operation, and polls that show McCAskill pulling ahead. I say she takes it, by a hair.
IT'S THE FINAL COUNTDOWN...
Counting Independents in Vermont and Connecticut as Democrats, then, we will see a Democratic majority in the Senate, at 51-49, as the Blues pull through in Montana, Missouri, and Virginia.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
posted by Matthew at 9:59 AM
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