Three Polls Now GIve Obama Tie or Small Lead in California
Feb. 4/ Suffolk/ Clinton 39 - Obama 40
Feb. 3/ Rasmussen/ Clinton 44 - Obama 45
Feb. 3/ Zogby/ Clinton 41 - Obama 45
A note of caution for these and other polls: most recent polls reveal a 10-20 point group of undecideds. How this group breaks will be a huge factor. Note that in Florida, Obama did better among people who decided in the month leading up to the election, but Hillary got a small lead on the day. This phenomenon is probably explained by people who have a hard time deciding between their 'heart' and their 'head' - i.e., between inspiration (Obama) and what they (erroneously, in my opinion) believe to be a person with more experience who has a better chance of winning the general election. This misconception, which I have seen constantly repeated by average JOes and Janes all across the country, belies both the polls and the fact that HRC is the stated preferred opponent of the Grand Old Part-ay. Go figure...
Feb. 3/ Rasmussen/ Clinton 44 - Obama 45
Feb. 3/ Zogby/ Clinton 41 - Obama 45
A note of caution for these and other polls: most recent polls reveal a 10-20 point group of undecideds. How this group breaks will be a huge factor. Note that in Florida, Obama did better among people who decided in the month leading up to the election, but Hillary got a small lead on the day. This phenomenon is probably explained by people who have a hard time deciding between their 'heart' and their 'head' - i.e., between inspiration (Obama) and what they (erroneously, in my opinion) believe to be a person with more experience who has a better chance of winning the general election. This misconception, which I have seen constantly repeated by average JOes and Janes all across the country, belies both the polls and the fact that HRC is the stated preferred opponent of the Grand Old Part-ay. Go figure...
posted by Matthew at 9:03 AM
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