Super Tuesday Predictions
As you know, the actual states won by Clinton or Obama don't really matter; it's the delegates that count. But assuming that they split the delegates relatively evenly, the ability for each camp to say they racked up more states will be crucial in mainaining momentum. So, here are my predictions for Tuesday; if I get more than three wrong, I'll, I don't know, chew off my left arm. So, here goes:
1. ALABAMA TIE
2. ALASKA OBAMA
3. AMERICAN SAMOA OBAMA
4. ARIZONA CLINTON
5. ARKANSAS CLINTON
6. CALIFORNIA TIE
7. COLORADO TIE
8. CONNECTICUT TIE
9. DELAWARE CLINTON
10. DEMS ABROAD OBAMA
11. GEORGIA OBAMA
12. IDAHO OBAMA
13. ILLINOIS OBAMA
14. KANSAS OBAMA
15. MASSACHUSSETTS CLINTON
16. MINNESOTA CLINTON
17. MISSOURI TIE
18. NEW JERSEY CLINTON
19. NEW MEXICO CLINTON
20. NEW YORK CLINTON
21. NORTH DAKOTA OBAMA
22. OKLAHOMA CLINTON
23. TENNESSEE CLINTON
24. UTAH CLINTON
And here's the reasoning, such as there is any:
1. ALABAMA TIE
Recent polls show Obama narrowing what was once a big Hillary lead. Black voters will deliver a very close result here for Obama, perhaps a small lead for O.
2. ALASKA OBAMA
Obama has consistently won male voters; Alaska's population is heavily male. As a caucus in a mostly Republican state, a small core of motivated Obama supporters could deliver it for him. Truth is, with virtually no polls to go on, this state could go either way.
3. AMERICAN SAMOA OBAMA
Obama's international ties, particularly his time in Indonesia, should help him out here.
4. ARIZONA CLINTON
Obama is running an ad here voiced by Gov. Napolitano, which seems to have helped him narrow the gap to within 5 points of Hillary. For some reason, I just don't see it happening for the Big B.O. here. I predict a small win for Hillary.
5. ARKANSAS CLINTON
No prizes for guessing why.
6. CALIFORNIA TIE
With 441 delegates, California is the big prize. Everyone expects New York to go to HRC and Illinois to go to BO, so a lot hangs on this win psychologically. Look for both camps to claim victory in this state and give a big speech there. Obama has been surging there, and with endorsements from the L.A. Times, La Opinion and other papers, if he can gain among Latino voters there and mop one among liberal strongholds like San Fran and Berkeley, he may be able to gain the mantle of inevitability here.
7. COLORADO TIE
Surprisingly, a poll about a week ago from the Denver Post showed Obama with a 2-point lead. Is this a fluke, or are Hispanics turning towards Obama? We really have very little to go on for this state, so I won't venture a favorite.
8. CONNECTICUT TIE
Based probably on wealthier and highly-educated Dems exiled from NYC and the Ned Lamont anti-war crowd, Obama has surprisingly pulled even in this state that was supposed to be part of Hillary's NYC trifecta. Too close to call; both sides may claim victory here.
9. DELAWARE CLINTON
Obama has been pushing to even things up here, but he will do well to lose by 5-10 points.
10. DEMS ABROAD OBAMA
Unlike overseas Republicans, who are mostly military or foreign service, overseas Democrats tend to fall into the highly-educated, more liberal group that Obama has won significantly. This will probably not be a blow-out, as women may rally for Clinton, but the introduction of new internet voting system could help drive the younger voters for Obama. Look for Obama to edge out Hillary in this one. (His foreign background and international ties may help too.)
11. GEORGIA OBAMA
After South CArolina, the polls show a surge in African-American support for Obama here. This should be a big win for him, by 10-20 points.
12. IDAHO OBAMA
Obama has sought to put his 'One America' theme in practice by competing in heavily red states like Idaho. Dems there may just be so happy that he visited the state personally that they'll give him a big win there. A win here will show that he can compete in the west.
13. ILLINOIS OBAMA
Hillary's attempt to bite into Obama's lead in his home state may or may not have had any real impact. Look for a thirty-point win by Obama here.
14. KANSAS OBAMA
There haven't been many polls here, but Obama has two things in his favour: a high-profile endorsement from Governor Sebelius and the fact that his mother was from there. Similar demographics to Iowa, which gave him a big win a month ago.
15. MASSACHUSSETTS CLINTON
Hillary does well among the sort of blue-collar Dems who are the base in Massachussetts, but Obama's poll numbers have been surprisingly low here, given three factors: the embrace of the Kennedy family of Obama, the large numbers of 'liberal elites' around Boston, and the large numbers of college students. Still, if the polls are to believed, Hillary should win here by at least ten points.
16. MINNESOTA CLINTON
There haven't been many polls here, but what is available suggests a small Clinton win. Lower-middle class Dems and older voters should help Hillary here.
17. MISSOURI TIE
Clinton was leading here until recently, by 19 points just a week ago according to a Rasmussen poll, but a Zogby poll out today shows that lead has shrunk to one point, within the margin of error. Other polls from the last couple of days confirm an HRC lead of only 4 or 6 points. Obama is running an ad there voiced by Senator McKaskill. This will be a very close race. The Bellweather state may well predict who can pull out the nomination.
18. NEW JERSEY CLINTON
Hillary did have a big lead here, based on her blue-collar Dem support, but Obama has made significant gains. Look for Hillary to win it, but perhaps only by about 5 points or so.
19. NEW MEXICO CLINTON
Hispanic support and women. No polls, just a hunch.
20. NEW YORK CLINTON
Home turf for Hillary, although Obama has been advertising heavily here. He'll do well to come in better than 20 points down.
21. NORTH DAKOTA OBAMA
Endorsements, and the same reasons as places like Idaho and Alaska. Just a hunch, again.
22. OKLAHOMA CLINTON
Look for a big win by HRC here, probably 20 points. BO isn't even bothering to advertise here.
23. TENNESSEE CLINTON
If Obama narrows her lead to 10 points here, he's doing well.
24. UTAH CLINTON
This state could end up favoring Obama for the same reasons as Idaho, but he had to cancel his big rally here for a Mormon funeral. I say Clinton, but could be close.
Can Obama do it?
The best that Obama can do really would be to post a decisive win in California, where independents can vote in the primary. Wins in Georgia, Alabama, Kansas, Idaho, Colorado, Alaska, Connecticut, on top of this would show that he can win in very different regions.
If he does well around the rest of the country and then clinches things in the Potomac Primary a week later in Maryland, DC and Virginia, he may be able to pull this thing off.
This is a dream scenario though; it is still an uphill fight for Obama, and chances are more likely that he will come out of Super Tuesday with 40-45% of pledged delegates. We'll see...
1. ALABAMA TIE
2. ALASKA OBAMA
3. AMERICAN SAMOA OBAMA
4. ARIZONA CLINTON
5. ARKANSAS CLINTON
6. CALIFORNIA TIE
7. COLORADO TIE
8. CONNECTICUT TIE
9. DELAWARE CLINTON
10. DEMS ABROAD OBAMA
11. GEORGIA OBAMA
12. IDAHO OBAMA
13. ILLINOIS OBAMA
14. KANSAS OBAMA
15. MASSACHUSSETTS CLINTON
16. MINNESOTA CLINTON
17. MISSOURI TIE
18. NEW JERSEY CLINTON
19. NEW MEXICO CLINTON
20. NEW YORK CLINTON
21. NORTH DAKOTA OBAMA
22. OKLAHOMA CLINTON
23. TENNESSEE CLINTON
24. UTAH CLINTON
And here's the reasoning, such as there is any:
1. ALABAMA TIE
Recent polls show Obama narrowing what was once a big Hillary lead. Black voters will deliver a very close result here for Obama, perhaps a small lead for O.
2. ALASKA OBAMA
Obama has consistently won male voters; Alaska's population is heavily male. As a caucus in a mostly Republican state, a small core of motivated Obama supporters could deliver it for him. Truth is, with virtually no polls to go on, this state could go either way.
3. AMERICAN SAMOA OBAMA
Obama's international ties, particularly his time in Indonesia, should help him out here.
4. ARIZONA CLINTON
Obama is running an ad here voiced by Gov. Napolitano, which seems to have helped him narrow the gap to within 5 points of Hillary. For some reason, I just don't see it happening for the Big B.O. here. I predict a small win for Hillary.
5. ARKANSAS CLINTON
No prizes for guessing why.
6. CALIFORNIA TIE
With 441 delegates, California is the big prize. Everyone expects New York to go to HRC and Illinois to go to BO, so a lot hangs on this win psychologically. Look for both camps to claim victory in this state and give a big speech there. Obama has been surging there, and with endorsements from the L.A. Times, La Opinion and other papers, if he can gain among Latino voters there and mop one among liberal strongholds like San Fran and Berkeley, he may be able to gain the mantle of inevitability here.
7. COLORADO TIE
Surprisingly, a poll about a week ago from the Denver Post showed Obama with a 2-point lead. Is this a fluke, or are Hispanics turning towards Obama? We really have very little to go on for this state, so I won't venture a favorite.
8. CONNECTICUT TIE
Based probably on wealthier and highly-educated Dems exiled from NYC and the Ned Lamont anti-war crowd, Obama has surprisingly pulled even in this state that was supposed to be part of Hillary's NYC trifecta. Too close to call; both sides may claim victory here.
9. DELAWARE CLINTON
Obama has been pushing to even things up here, but he will do well to lose by 5-10 points.
10. DEMS ABROAD OBAMA
Unlike overseas Republicans, who are mostly military or foreign service, overseas Democrats tend to fall into the highly-educated, more liberal group that Obama has won significantly. This will probably not be a blow-out, as women may rally for Clinton, but the introduction of new internet voting system could help drive the younger voters for Obama. Look for Obama to edge out Hillary in this one. (His foreign background and international ties may help too.)
11. GEORGIA OBAMA
After South CArolina, the polls show a surge in African-American support for Obama here. This should be a big win for him, by 10-20 points.
12. IDAHO OBAMA
Obama has sought to put his 'One America' theme in practice by competing in heavily red states like Idaho. Dems there may just be so happy that he visited the state personally that they'll give him a big win there. A win here will show that he can compete in the west.
13. ILLINOIS OBAMA
Hillary's attempt to bite into Obama's lead in his home state may or may not have had any real impact. Look for a thirty-point win by Obama here.
14. KANSAS OBAMA
There haven't been many polls here, but Obama has two things in his favour: a high-profile endorsement from Governor Sebelius and the fact that his mother was from there. Similar demographics to Iowa, which gave him a big win a month ago.
15. MASSACHUSSETTS CLINTON
Hillary does well among the sort of blue-collar Dems who are the base in Massachussetts, but Obama's poll numbers have been surprisingly low here, given three factors: the embrace of the Kennedy family of Obama, the large numbers of 'liberal elites' around Boston, and the large numbers of college students. Still, if the polls are to believed, Hillary should win here by at least ten points.
16. MINNESOTA CLINTON
There haven't been many polls here, but what is available suggests a small Clinton win. Lower-middle class Dems and older voters should help Hillary here.
17. MISSOURI TIE
Clinton was leading here until recently, by 19 points just a week ago according to a Rasmussen poll, but a Zogby poll out today shows that lead has shrunk to one point, within the margin of error. Other polls from the last couple of days confirm an HRC lead of only 4 or 6 points. Obama is running an ad there voiced by Senator McKaskill. This will be a very close race. The Bellweather state may well predict who can pull out the nomination.
18. NEW JERSEY CLINTON
Hillary did have a big lead here, based on her blue-collar Dem support, but Obama has made significant gains. Look for Hillary to win it, but perhaps only by about 5 points or so.
19. NEW MEXICO CLINTON
Hispanic support and women. No polls, just a hunch.
20. NEW YORK CLINTON
Home turf for Hillary, although Obama has been advertising heavily here. He'll do well to come in better than 20 points down.
21. NORTH DAKOTA OBAMA
Endorsements, and the same reasons as places like Idaho and Alaska. Just a hunch, again.
22. OKLAHOMA CLINTON
Look for a big win by HRC here, probably 20 points. BO isn't even bothering to advertise here.
23. TENNESSEE CLINTON
If Obama narrows her lead to 10 points here, he's doing well.
24. UTAH CLINTON
This state could end up favoring Obama for the same reasons as Idaho, but he had to cancel his big rally here for a Mormon funeral. I say Clinton, but could be close.
Can Obama do it?
The best that Obama can do really would be to post a decisive win in California, where independents can vote in the primary. Wins in Georgia, Alabama, Kansas, Idaho, Colorado, Alaska, Connecticut, on top of this would show that he can win in very different regions.
If he does well around the rest of the country and then clinches things in the Potomac Primary a week later in Maryland, DC and Virginia, he may be able to pull this thing off.
This is a dream scenario though; it is still an uphill fight for Obama, and chances are more likely that he will come out of Super Tuesday with 40-45% of pledged delegates. We'll see...
posted by Matthew at 3:31 PM
1 Comments:
Hmm, interesting analysis. What is momentum in this context, and should we buy into the idea that it means anything? Honest snark free question, here.
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