Reality Check
Well, a big night for Hillary - no doubting that. There are a number of factors going on here. Hillary's campaign has been running much stronger and has had a lot more cash on hand since they retooled and replaced her manager. She's been gaining momentum for the last couple of weeks and the notion that Obama has gotten an easy ride from the media while she has been the subject of negative coverage, so cleverly satirized on SNL, has clearly resonated with the public. Hillary has regained the ground she lost among working-class men in Wisconsin. Her 'kitchen sink' strategy managed to hold off the Obama onslaught. But her comedy-show charm offensive also was accompanied by negative ads, like the redux of the Walter Mondale, 1984 'commies are going to get your children if you vote for the other guy'. Previously, attempts to go negative (remember the plagiarism thing? the subtle racial references) backfired or fell flat. Now that Obama is the frontrunner, they are gaining traction.
Hillary had a huge advantage going into this campaign. Last year, it seemed like she had already been coronated as the de facto nominee, and with huge name recognition and her husband's big donors behind her, she was the ultimate Democratic Establishment Candidate. Now, she is the underdog and has had to reinvent her campaign, which had expected to have sown up the nomination by early February, and rewrite her narrative. She is having some serious success with this and is clearly in the driver's seat again.
But let's take a reality check here. Obama won more states than her on Super Tuesday and 11 in a row after that. His lead in pledged delegates is now just under a hundred, but let's put that in perspective. There were, if memory serves, 440 pledged delegates up for grabs in Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island last night. Hillary may have gained a net of about 10. It may be as low as 7, depending on the final numbers from the Texas caucus process.
This Saturday, Wyoming holds a caucus. If it is anything like Idaho, Utah, Kansas, and other western caucus states, Obama will lead with a sizeable margin. Clinton has probably got people on the ground there, so it may not be as big a lead, but expect Obama to regain some of those 7-10 delegates on Saturday.
Then, on the 11th, there's a primary in Mississippi. If this is anything like Louisiana and Alabama, African-American support there will again give Obama a big lead. Expect him to 'take back' the rest of Hillary's win on the 11th.
So, in a week, chances are that Obama's lead in pledged delegates will be more or less exactly the same as it was before last night.
Obama's campaign has been making some serious blunders lately, though. He should have denounced Farrakhan more firmly and without equivocating, and he should have never let his advisor speak to the Canadians. The weird thing is, the Clintons were responsible for NAFTA, and Obama has been critical of it, yet somehow Hillary dominated on the issue. That is bad campaign leadership, and it bodes poorly for the race with McCain. They need to get their act together and quit coasting.
Pennsylvania will be a long, hard slog, and if New Jersey, New York and Ohio are anything to go by, Hillary will have a real advantage here. Obama has got to get his Wisconsin mojo back of connecting with blue-collar voters, or it will be a bad night for him.
Anyway, it'll be a long six weeks, and a long time till the convention. At least I'll get more sleep.
Over and out.
Hillary had a huge advantage going into this campaign. Last year, it seemed like she had already been coronated as the de facto nominee, and with huge name recognition and her husband's big donors behind her, she was the ultimate Democratic Establishment Candidate. Now, she is the underdog and has had to reinvent her campaign, which had expected to have sown up the nomination by early February, and rewrite her narrative. She is having some serious success with this and is clearly in the driver's seat again.
But let's take a reality check here. Obama won more states than her on Super Tuesday and 11 in a row after that. His lead in pledged delegates is now just under a hundred, but let's put that in perspective. There were, if memory serves, 440 pledged delegates up for grabs in Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island last night. Hillary may have gained a net of about 10. It may be as low as 7, depending on the final numbers from the Texas caucus process.
This Saturday, Wyoming holds a caucus. If it is anything like Idaho, Utah, Kansas, and other western caucus states, Obama will lead with a sizeable margin. Clinton has probably got people on the ground there, so it may not be as big a lead, but expect Obama to regain some of those 7-10 delegates on Saturday.
Then, on the 11th, there's a primary in Mississippi. If this is anything like Louisiana and Alabama, African-American support there will again give Obama a big lead. Expect him to 'take back' the rest of Hillary's win on the 11th.
So, in a week, chances are that Obama's lead in pledged delegates will be more or less exactly the same as it was before last night.
Obama's campaign has been making some serious blunders lately, though. He should have denounced Farrakhan more firmly and without equivocating, and he should have never let his advisor speak to the Canadians. The weird thing is, the Clintons were responsible for NAFTA, and Obama has been critical of it, yet somehow Hillary dominated on the issue. That is bad campaign leadership, and it bodes poorly for the race with McCain. They need to get their act together and quit coasting.
Pennsylvania will be a long, hard slog, and if New Jersey, New York and Ohio are anything to go by, Hillary will have a real advantage here. Obama has got to get his Wisconsin mojo back of connecting with blue-collar voters, or it will be a bad night for him.
Anyway, it'll be a long six weeks, and a long time till the convention. At least I'll get more sleep.
Over and out.
posted by Matthew at 2:43 PM
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