I Predict A Riot

Okay, we're still waiting to see how the delegates shake down, but at the moment I can see how I did in my predictions based on the popular vote. Here goes:

Let's start with the ones I got right.

ALASKA for Obama.
Arizona for Clinton.
Arkansas for Clinton.
Georgia for Obama.
Idaho for Obama.
Illinois for Obama.
Kansas for Obama.
Massachussetts for Clinton.
New Jersey for Clinton.
New York for Clinton.
North Dakota for Obama.
Oklahoma for Clinton.
Tennessee for Clinton.

That's 13, a little over half.

Now let's look at the ones I got unequivocally wrong:
American Samoa went for Clinton, not Obama.

All the actual states that I called for one candidate (rather than a tie) and got wrong, did so in favor of Obama. I also heavily underestimated his turnout in caucus states, most of which he won by huge margins.

Delaware went for Obama, not Clinton.
Minnesota went for Obama, not Clinton.
Utah went for Obama, not Clinton.

So I don't mind being wrong on these. Also, it's worth noting that Delaware and Minnesota are 'blue states', showing that Obama upset expectations not only in Republican-leaning places like Idaho and Kansas (where he won't win in November).

Now, ties I got wrong. Some of these may still be ties in terms of delegates. Obviously, there is no such thing as a perfect tie in the popular vote.

Ties that broke for Hillary:
California. Chalk this one down to the absentee ballots and the last-minute deciders, who seem to be breaking for Clinton. Expectations got too high for Obama, but he still closed the gap from about 20 points to 10 points in a very short time.

In every other case, the movement was towards Obama. Let's take a look:

I said Colorado would be a tie, actually Obama wrapped this up by about 44 points!

I predicted Alabama would be a tie, and Obama swept up by 14 points.

I thought Connecticut would be a tie, and Obama grasped a very significant victory by 3 or 4 point spread.

Missouri, the Bellweather state, broke for Obama. This is huge. I said a tie; he one by a percentage point. They may still tie here in delegates.

New Mexico, I called for Clinton, and it was for all intents and purposes a tie. They are within a hundred votes of each other, and provisional ballots are being counted. Either way, the movement was towards Obama.


So, I did pretty well. The only places where the votes broke for Hillary against my prediction were California and American Samoa. If anything, I underestimated Obama's strengths in the South, the Midwest and the West, and in a caucus environment. He won Idaho, 80-17.

So, to recap, Obama won Alabama, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Minnesota, Missouri, possibly New Mexico, and Utah, all of which I said would either go to Clinton or be a tie.

That this night could be spun as anything but huge for Obama is a mystery to me.