PREDICTIONS - Cook, Zogby and My Take on the Senate
Charlie Cook still thinks we're looking at a 20-35 seat gain in the House, and 4-6 seats in the Senate. With all the smut that's been flying around out there, that's good news.
A new Zogby poll today, which suggests a breakdown of 27-23 in the governorships after election day. Advantage: Democrats. By the way, governorships are a wonderful way at seeing how the states defy all attempts to categorize into neat red and blue columns. Some of the most liberal states, including Vermont, Hawaii and Rhode Island, have Republican governors. Likewise, some of the most conservative states, such as Kansas, Oklahoma, and Arizona, have Democratic governors.
Zogby's Senate numbers show Webb with a (4 point) lead in Virginia for the first time. Maybe Allen's attempt to smear Webb with his bad racy novels has backfired; maybe Allen's secrecy over his arrest record is doing the trick. I would really love to see Webb win this one.
In Tennessee, Ford is trailing by one point. In Missouri, McAskill is behind by 2. I am skeptical about the Dem's chances in these extremely close races. I am inclined to think that McAskill has the better chance. Stem cell research is on the ballot there and that could motivate Dems to get out and vote. In Tennessee, I am afraid that the Republican Get Out the Vote advantage, coupled with the likelihood that Ford's race may erode some of his numbers on the day, suggests that Corker will scrape through there. We'll see. Zogby has LAmont only 4 points behind Lieberman now, but I'll doubt if that goes anywhere.
I do think that Menendez will pull it together in New Jersey by election day. He seems to be gaining again, and Zogby has him with 6 points on Kean.
By Zogby's numbers (and his methodology is different from other pollsters'), DeWine is closing the gap in Ohio. Other polls show Brown with a good 10 points over DeWine, but Zogby allows him only a two point lead. There is a very strong anti-Republican, anti-incumbent mood in Ohio, however, and I will doubt if DeWine makes it.
My prediction: The Democrats will win Washington, Montana, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Maryland and Yes, Virginia, there is a Senate Clause. The Repugnacious will hold on in Arizona, Tennessee, Missouri, as well as their other strongholds. This will make a 50-50 Senate. The best pickup chance for Senate majority is Missouri. The most vulnerable spot for the Dems is Montana. Burns has been coming back hard at Tester, throwing the L word and the T word around, and voters may be saturated with the Abramoff/corruption message. The latest Rasmussen poll still shows Tester leading by 4, however, so we'll leave it at that. A 50/50 Senate, with Dems taking Virginia, but not Missouri or Tennessee.
Any one have any other opinions?
A new Zogby poll today, which suggests a breakdown of 27-23 in the governorships after election day. Advantage: Democrats. By the way, governorships are a wonderful way at seeing how the states defy all attempts to categorize into neat red and blue columns. Some of the most liberal states, including Vermont, Hawaii and Rhode Island, have Republican governors. Likewise, some of the most conservative states, such as Kansas, Oklahoma, and Arizona, have Democratic governors.
Zogby's Senate numbers show Webb with a (4 point) lead in Virginia for the first time. Maybe Allen's attempt to smear Webb with his bad racy novels has backfired; maybe Allen's secrecy over his arrest record is doing the trick. I would really love to see Webb win this one.
In Tennessee, Ford is trailing by one point. In Missouri, McAskill is behind by 2. I am skeptical about the Dem's chances in these extremely close races. I am inclined to think that McAskill has the better chance. Stem cell research is on the ballot there and that could motivate Dems to get out and vote. In Tennessee, I am afraid that the Republican Get Out the Vote advantage, coupled with the likelihood that Ford's race may erode some of his numbers on the day, suggests that Corker will scrape through there. We'll see. Zogby has LAmont only 4 points behind Lieberman now, but I'll doubt if that goes anywhere.
I do think that Menendez will pull it together in New Jersey by election day. He seems to be gaining again, and Zogby has him with 6 points on Kean.
By Zogby's numbers (and his methodology is different from other pollsters'), DeWine is closing the gap in Ohio. Other polls show Brown with a good 10 points over DeWine, but Zogby allows him only a two point lead. There is a very strong anti-Republican, anti-incumbent mood in Ohio, however, and I will doubt if DeWine makes it.
My prediction: The Democrats will win Washington, Montana, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Maryland and Yes, Virginia, there is a Senate Clause. The Repugnacious will hold on in Arizona, Tennessee, Missouri, as well as their other strongholds. This will make a 50-50 Senate. The best pickup chance for Senate majority is Missouri. The most vulnerable spot for the Dems is Montana. Burns has been coming back hard at Tester, throwing the L word and the T word around, and voters may be saturated with the Abramoff/corruption message. The latest Rasmussen poll still shows Tester leading by 4, however, so we'll leave it at that. A 50/50 Senate, with Dems taking Virginia, but not Missouri or Tennessee.
Any one have any other opinions?
posted by Matthew at 11:37 AM
1 Comments:
Patented terrible prediction from me number 27: Republicans charge election irregularities lost them key positions. Remember from 2004 that it is possible for congress to not accept election results if they feel that irregularities occurred, in which case a vote is held by congress about who should win various federal contests.
JP
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