Kos's 2006 election predictions
Kos-Eye View
The creator of the left’s favorite political blog, The Daily Kos, handicaps the 2006 elections and shares his advice for the Democratic Party.
WEB EXCLUSIVE
By Susanna Schrobsdorff
Newsweek
Updated: 3:05 p.m. ET Dec. 29, 2005
Dec. 28, 2005 - With the 2006 election season nearly upon us, Democrats are hoping to win back majority control of at least one house of Congress. Meanwhile Republicans are revving up their legendary campaign machine in an effort to hold on to Capitol Hill.
With the stakes so high, both parties will be using every medium available—including the Internet—to raise funds and convey their message. In the thick of this fight is Markos Moulitsas Zúniga, creator of The Daily Kos, one of the most popular blogs on the Web, with about 2 million readers a week. His forthcoming book, “Crashing the Gate: Netroots, Grassroots and the Rise of People-Powered Politics” (Chelsea Green) is a manifesto for rebuilding the Democratic Party. Moulitsas recently spoke with NEWSWEEK’s Susanna Schrobsdorff about the political outlook for next year. Excerpts:
NEWSWEEK: What will be hottest political contest of 2006?
Markos Moulitsas Zúniga: The Pennsylvania Senate race between incumbent Rick Santorum and Bob Casey Jr. Santorum is an extremely conservative senator in a state that’s not as conservative as he is. And the Democrats have what may be the most popular politician in the entire state, who is the son of a man who was possibly the state’s most popular politician ever. Casey is trouncing Santorum in the polls. Santorum is raising a lot of money because the grass-roots religious right groups love him, but the Republican Party is more likely to write him off. He’s in serious peril.
Tom DeLay, the Republican congressman from Texas, is running for re-election while fighting off an indictment for money laundering. How is that race looking?
DeLay is a power-hungry individual. Even now, when he’s no longer [House] majority leader, he’s still essentially pulling the strings. I don’t think DeLay is going anywhere, but he is under a lot of pressure from multiple sources. Obviously, he’s got the [Travis County District Attorney] Ronnie Earle indictment against him to worry about, but he’s also got the [indicted lobbyist Jack] Abramoff investigation nipping at his heels. I think the Abramoff stuff is going to be more damaging to him legally.
How will the Abramoff lobbying scandal affect the 2006 races?
That’s one of the big questions. If Democrats can nationalize this election, and really work the culture of corruption in as a big theme for the election, I think it could be devastating to the Republican Party. That is what happened to the Democrats in 1994. We were the corrupt party then. It was not pretty being a Democrat. But it took Democrats 30 years to become a totally corrupted party and it took the GOP only 10 years.
Which other races should we watch?
The Rhode Island race. Lincoln Chafee is a moderate senator facing a right-wing Republican challenger—Stephen Laffey—in the primary. If Laffey wins it’s very hard to see him winning the general election.
In the Ohio Senate race either Democratic challenger Paul Hackett or Sherrod Brown are beating Republican incumbent Sen. Mike DeWine in the polls. Anytime an incumbent is behind in the polls it’s a bad sign because they have all the advantages of incumbency.
Missouri is the next big race. Democrat Claire McCaskill is up against Republican Sen. Jim Talent. Missouri is like Ohio in that the Republican governor is highly unpopular. McCaskill already has a network and name recognition after losing narrowly in a run for governor.
Another Democratic pickup opportunity [for either Democratic challenger John Morrison or Jon Tester] is Montana where Conrad Burns is now the most unpopular senator in the country. The local media, which is very aggressive, has already shown examples where Burns has changed his vote on issues after he received big checks.
Which races should the Dems be worried about?
We have two races at this point that look iffy. One is Minnesota. The incumbent Democrat [Mark Dayton] is very unpopular, and he’s retired so it’s an open seat. And the other interesting Senate race is Florida. The Democratic incumbent is running against the infamous Katherine Harris [Florida’s secretary of state during the disputed 2000 presidential election]. The Republican establishment keep spreading rumors that she’s about to quit, and nobody’s going to fund a candidate that’s about to quit. They’re hoping to push her out and get someone else in there because Harris has been polling terribly against Democrat Bill Nelson.
Do you think the Democrats can win back the majority in either the House or the Senate?
I think Democrats will make gains, but it’s 2008 we need to think about. I’m hoping that as we build our machine and repair the Democratic brand, people will start voting for Democrats because they want to vote for Democrats and not just because they want to vote against Republicans.
Is the Iraq war the key campaign issue, or something else?
I think as long as Iraq is on the plate it is the issue. You don’t see a lot of talk about the war in the national media. Six people get killed in an IED [improvised explosive device] attack and it’s put on page 37. But every one of those casualties becomes a big media event for local press, and that’s why people are turning against the war. You go to places like Montana and when a local son gets killed, it is an all-week news event—front page on the day he is killed. They talk to his parents, his high-school coach. They cover the funeral. For a long time it was just us bloggers opposing the war, but that’s changing.
How will the Democrats use the war issue?
This is a little frustrating for me. Here’s a perfect opportunity for Democrats to have led on an issue, and they haven’t. The problem is that part of the Democratic caucus thinks it’s manly and tough to be for the war. They are afraid to basically state what the reality on the ground is.
Did Congressman John Murtha’s criticism of the war embolden the Dems?
The Democratic caucus should have rallied behind Murtha. That was all the cover they needed to come out on this issue. But they were sill weak. The reason I loved Paul Hackett in the Ohio (2005 House) race is because he didn’t equivocate about war. Hackett is an Iraq war veteran who ran as a Democrat in Ohio’s Second Congressional District outside Cincinnati—one of the most Republican districts in all of Ohio. He was viciously critical of George Bush and how he’s handled the war. Hackett lost, but only by 2 or 3 percent of the vote, which is an incredible margin in that district. [Hackett is now running for the U.S. Senate from Ohio.]
What role will political bloggers play in the 2006 elections?
We, along with Democracy for America, raised [several hundred thousand dollars] for Paul Hackett in Ohio, but that was just one race. The bloggers are not a good fund-raising mechanism. We’re better as a message machine. What I’m going to be doing is following the local bloggers, and when stuff gets interesting I’ll link to that. So we’re going to have the ability to nationalize these races, and if a race gets buzz, it’s easier to fund-raise. That wasn’t really possible before the blogosphere.
Looking forward to 2008, what do you think of Hillary Clinton’s presidential chances?
The person to watch on the Democratic side for president is not Hillary Clinton, but [former Virginia governor] Mark Warner. He showed that not only could he win in Virginia, a Red State, but he had the coattails to help his successor win. He is one of the most popular governors in Virginia history—he has a 70 or 80 percent approval rating. He’ll be the anti-Hillary. Hillary is at the top now because of name recognition. She’s where Joe Lieberman was last time [in the 2004 Democratic presidential primary]. Her advisers span the entire spectrum of the party, and that seems like a good thing for coalition-building, but as soon as the campaign hits some rocky shores it’s all going to bust out in infighting. Ask me what Hillary Clinton’s position on the war is, and I still can’t tell you. She has every position. John Kerry had the same problem. Voters look at that and say she’s taking every position, so in other words, she stands for nothing—that’s why “Netroots” don’t like Hillary.
Can you define Netroots for us?
Netroots are the crazy political junkies that hang out in blogs. They’re people who use technology to participate in politics. They do a lot offline, but they do their organizing online. The issue of whether you’re liberal or conservative is not relevant to us. The issue is: Are you proud to be a Democrat? Are you partisan? Will you take the fight to the enemy? Will you roll over when the Republicans say boo?
It looks like GOP Sen. John McCain is planning another run for the presidency.
McCain is definitely running, but I don’t think he’ll get out of the Republican primaries. He’s hated by the GOP. They consider him a traitor on any number of issues. He fought the White House on the torture issue. He’s like the Joe Lieberman of their party. We [Democrats] hate Lieberman. Lieberman is going to get a primary challenger for his Senate seat next year if me and a lot of grass-roots groups have our way.
© 2006 Newsweek, Inc.
The creator of the left’s favorite political blog, The Daily Kos, handicaps the 2006 elections and shares his advice for the Democratic Party.
WEB EXCLUSIVE
By Susanna Schrobsdorff
Newsweek
Updated: 3:05 p.m. ET Dec. 29, 2005
Dec. 28, 2005 - With the 2006 election season nearly upon us, Democrats are hoping to win back majority control of at least one house of Congress. Meanwhile Republicans are revving up their legendary campaign machine in an effort to hold on to Capitol Hill.
With the stakes so high, both parties will be using every medium available—including the Internet—to raise funds and convey their message. In the thick of this fight is Markos Moulitsas Zúniga, creator of The Daily Kos, one of the most popular blogs on the Web, with about 2 million readers a week. His forthcoming book, “Crashing the Gate: Netroots, Grassroots and the Rise of People-Powered Politics” (Chelsea Green) is a manifesto for rebuilding the Democratic Party. Moulitsas recently spoke with NEWSWEEK’s Susanna Schrobsdorff about the political outlook for next year. Excerpts:
NEWSWEEK: What will be hottest political contest of 2006?
Markos Moulitsas Zúniga: The Pennsylvania Senate race between incumbent Rick Santorum and Bob Casey Jr. Santorum is an extremely conservative senator in a state that’s not as conservative as he is. And the Democrats have what may be the most popular politician in the entire state, who is the son of a man who was possibly the state’s most popular politician ever. Casey is trouncing Santorum in the polls. Santorum is raising a lot of money because the grass-roots religious right groups love him, but the Republican Party is more likely to write him off. He’s in serious peril.
Tom DeLay, the Republican congressman from Texas, is running for re-election while fighting off an indictment for money laundering. How is that race looking?
DeLay is a power-hungry individual. Even now, when he’s no longer [House] majority leader, he’s still essentially pulling the strings. I don’t think DeLay is going anywhere, but he is under a lot of pressure from multiple sources. Obviously, he’s got the [Travis County District Attorney] Ronnie Earle indictment against him to worry about, but he’s also got the [indicted lobbyist Jack] Abramoff investigation nipping at his heels. I think the Abramoff stuff is going to be more damaging to him legally.
How will the Abramoff lobbying scandal affect the 2006 races?
That’s one of the big questions. If Democrats can nationalize this election, and really work the culture of corruption in as a big theme for the election, I think it could be devastating to the Republican Party. That is what happened to the Democrats in 1994. We were the corrupt party then. It was not pretty being a Democrat. But it took Democrats 30 years to become a totally corrupted party and it took the GOP only 10 years.
Which other races should we watch?
The Rhode Island race. Lincoln Chafee is a moderate senator facing a right-wing Republican challenger—Stephen Laffey—in the primary. If Laffey wins it’s very hard to see him winning the general election.
In the Ohio Senate race either Democratic challenger Paul Hackett or Sherrod Brown are beating Republican incumbent Sen. Mike DeWine in the polls. Anytime an incumbent is behind in the polls it’s a bad sign because they have all the advantages of incumbency.
Missouri is the next big race. Democrat Claire McCaskill is up against Republican Sen. Jim Talent. Missouri is like Ohio in that the Republican governor is highly unpopular. McCaskill already has a network and name recognition after losing narrowly in a run for governor.
Another Democratic pickup opportunity [for either Democratic challenger John Morrison or Jon Tester] is Montana where Conrad Burns is now the most unpopular senator in the country. The local media, which is very aggressive, has already shown examples where Burns has changed his vote on issues after he received big checks.
Which races should the Dems be worried about?
We have two races at this point that look iffy. One is Minnesota. The incumbent Democrat [Mark Dayton] is very unpopular, and he’s retired so it’s an open seat. And the other interesting Senate race is Florida. The Democratic incumbent is running against the infamous Katherine Harris [Florida’s secretary of state during the disputed 2000 presidential election]. The Republican establishment keep spreading rumors that she’s about to quit, and nobody’s going to fund a candidate that’s about to quit. They’re hoping to push her out and get someone else in there because Harris has been polling terribly against Democrat Bill Nelson.
Do you think the Democrats can win back the majority in either the House or the Senate?
I think Democrats will make gains, but it’s 2008 we need to think about. I’m hoping that as we build our machine and repair the Democratic brand, people will start voting for Democrats because they want to vote for Democrats and not just because they want to vote against Republicans.
Is the Iraq war the key campaign issue, or something else?
I think as long as Iraq is on the plate it is the issue. You don’t see a lot of talk about the war in the national media. Six people get killed in an IED [improvised explosive device] attack and it’s put on page 37. But every one of those casualties becomes a big media event for local press, and that’s why people are turning against the war. You go to places like Montana and when a local son gets killed, it is an all-week news event—front page on the day he is killed. They talk to his parents, his high-school coach. They cover the funeral. For a long time it was just us bloggers opposing the war, but that’s changing.
How will the Democrats use the war issue?
This is a little frustrating for me. Here’s a perfect opportunity for Democrats to have led on an issue, and they haven’t. The problem is that part of the Democratic caucus thinks it’s manly and tough to be for the war. They are afraid to basically state what the reality on the ground is.
Did Congressman John Murtha’s criticism of the war embolden the Dems?
The Democratic caucus should have rallied behind Murtha. That was all the cover they needed to come out on this issue. But they were sill weak. The reason I loved Paul Hackett in the Ohio (2005 House) race is because he didn’t equivocate about war. Hackett is an Iraq war veteran who ran as a Democrat in Ohio’s Second Congressional District outside Cincinnati—one of the most Republican districts in all of Ohio. He was viciously critical of George Bush and how he’s handled the war. Hackett lost, but only by 2 or 3 percent of the vote, which is an incredible margin in that district. [Hackett is now running for the U.S. Senate from Ohio.]
What role will political bloggers play in the 2006 elections?
We, along with Democracy for America, raised [several hundred thousand dollars] for Paul Hackett in Ohio, but that was just one race. The bloggers are not a good fund-raising mechanism. We’re better as a message machine. What I’m going to be doing is following the local bloggers, and when stuff gets interesting I’ll link to that. So we’re going to have the ability to nationalize these races, and if a race gets buzz, it’s easier to fund-raise. That wasn’t really possible before the blogosphere.
Looking forward to 2008, what do you think of Hillary Clinton’s presidential chances?
The person to watch on the Democratic side for president is not Hillary Clinton, but [former Virginia governor] Mark Warner. He showed that not only could he win in Virginia, a Red State, but he had the coattails to help his successor win. He is one of the most popular governors in Virginia history—he has a 70 or 80 percent approval rating. He’ll be the anti-Hillary. Hillary is at the top now because of name recognition. She’s where Joe Lieberman was last time [in the 2004 Democratic presidential primary]. Her advisers span the entire spectrum of the party, and that seems like a good thing for coalition-building, but as soon as the campaign hits some rocky shores it’s all going to bust out in infighting. Ask me what Hillary Clinton’s position on the war is, and I still can’t tell you. She has every position. John Kerry had the same problem. Voters look at that and say she’s taking every position, so in other words, she stands for nothing—that’s why “Netroots” don’t like Hillary.
Can you define Netroots for us?
Netroots are the crazy political junkies that hang out in blogs. They’re people who use technology to participate in politics. They do a lot offline, but they do their organizing online. The issue of whether you’re liberal or conservative is not relevant to us. The issue is: Are you proud to be a Democrat? Are you partisan? Will you take the fight to the enemy? Will you roll over when the Republicans say boo?
It looks like GOP Sen. John McCain is planning another run for the presidency.
McCain is definitely running, but I don’t think he’ll get out of the Republican primaries. He’s hated by the GOP. They consider him a traitor on any number of issues. He fought the White House on the torture issue. He’s like the Joe Lieberman of their party. We [Democrats] hate Lieberman. Lieberman is going to get a primary challenger for his Senate seat next year if me and a lot of grass-roots groups have our way.
© 2006 Newsweek, Inc.
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