progressionsession

Dems to blame for the subprime fiasco?

2008-10-07T19:45:00.002Z

Not so fast.

Really worth a read.

And if you haven't seen 60 Minutes' piece on the multi-trillion dollar unregulated shadow market on Wall Street, go watch it now.

If McCain was so opposed to Senate Concurrent Resolution 70...

2008-10-03T08:43:00.001Z

This is the bill that supposedly raised taxes on people making 42,000 dollars a year.

But if McCain was so against it, why did he not bother to vote either in March or in June?

Is Obama a Muslin?

2008-10-03T08:35:00.002Z

I really think this sign says it all. I don't know what it says for the town of Barefoot Bay, Florida. I think it actually helps Obama more than harms him, if this is his opposition.

Not Channel 77?

2008-10-03T08:32:00.001Z

Channel 73: all Obama ads, all the time?

Drudge viewers think Palin won

2008-10-03T08:30:00.002Z

... but you can still vote for Biden.

Homer Simpson voting for Obama

2008-10-03T08:30:00.001Z

... but the machine is rigged.

Things that make you go Hmm....

2008-10-03T05:49:00.003Z

Who 'won' the debate?

CNN's focus group: Biden 51, Palin 36

CBS's instant poll: Biden 46, Palin 21

Fox and Frank Luntz's focus group at Anheuser-Busch headquarters: no numbers, but nearly everybody thought Palin won.

What gives? Is this all the game of low expectations?

I predict a small bump for McCain in the polls in the next couple of days, but basically this will stop the bleeding a bit more than anything else.

Opinions?

Don't Trust Real Clear Politics

2008-10-02T15:09:00.000Z

Cherry-picking results?

Colorado looking better and better for Obama

2008-09-25T10:57:00.003Z

Remember, Obama wins if he holds onto the Kerry states from 2004 and adds Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado.

Which Kerry states will Obama struggle the most to hold onto?

1) Pennsylvania. With 21 electoral votes, this one is a must-win.

Pollster.com gives Obama only a 2.4% lead, taking the average of several polls. Real Clear Politics gives Obama a 3.3% lead.

2) New Hampshire. With only 4 electoral votes, Obama could lose this state and still win the election. But if NH goes to McCain, where else will?

Pollster puts McCain up 1.2 points, while RCP gives Obama a 2-point edge.

3) Michigan. If Obama loses here, he will need to win a big state like Florida to make up the electoral votes. Michigan is solidifying for him in recent polls, and RCP gives Obama a 3.9% advantage.

4) Minnesota. THis one was supposed to be in the bag for the Dems, but RCP gives Obama only a 2.8 percent lead. Pollster makes is 3.2%.

Now, what about those three states Obama needs to pick up?

1) Iowa. Bush won this state in 2004, but Obama has a stranglehold on this most Caucasian of Caucus states. Pollster gives him a wopping 10-point edge, and RCP makes it 9.4%.

2) New Mexico. Bush won this state by the narrowest of margins in 2004. Obama is up 6 points, according to RCP, and 6.2 %, according to Pollster.com.

3) COLORADO

Check out these recent polls:

Sept. 24:
Rasmussen +3 Obama
CNN +4 Obama
Insider Advantage +9 Obama

Sept. 23:
PPP +7 Obama
Quinnipiac +4 Obama

So, if Obama holds onto Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan and Minnesota, and wins Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado (all of which look likely), the result is this:

Obama 273
McCain 265

Keep in mind that this scenario allows McCain to win Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Indiana and Nevada - all states where Obama is competitive.

OBAMA 52- McCAIN 43

2008-09-24T13:07:00.001Z

Obama breaks 50 in this new WaPo/ ABC News Poll.

Battle of the Databases?

2008-09-21T08:36:00.002Z

Read about Catalist, the mega-database the Dem's are hoping will allow them to compete with the GOP's ground game more effectively.

Ground Game Update

2008-09-21T08:19:00.002Z

This article by Sean Quinn at 538.com has him walking the streets of Durango, Colorado. The Gore and Kerry campaigns didn't even have an office there, but check out what the Obama team has done.

Florida, North Carolina, Indiana still in play

2008-09-18T09:32:00.003Z

FLORIDA
CNN/ Sept 17
Obama 48
McCain 48

NORTH CAROLINA
CNN/ Sept 17
Obama 47
McCain 48

INDIANA
Selzer/ Sept 17
Obama 47
McCain 44

CNN/ Sept 17
Obama 45
McCain 51

MONTANA STILL IN PLAY

2008-09-17T16:08:00.003Z

Well, the conventional wisdom was that Sarah Palin made soft-red states like Montana impossible for Obama, but new polls suggest that just isn't the case.

A new ARG poll out today has Obama only two points behind there (49/47).

There are now 5 daily tracking polls

2008-09-17T08:51:00.003Z

Overkill? You decide. Anyway, here they are, from yesterday's results:

Gallup McCain 47 Obama 46 McCain +1
Rasmussen McCain 48 Obama 47 McCain +1
Research 2000/ Daily Kos McCain 44 Obama 48 Obama +4
Hotline/ Diageo McCain 42 Obama 46 Obama +4
Ipsos/ McClatchy McCain 45 Obama 45 Tied

Average of all 5: McCain 45.2 Obama 46.4 Obama +1.2

Horserace: Sept. 16th

2008-09-16T17:11:00.002Z

Is McCain's Palin bump over?

Look at today's numbers, from these Daily Tracking Polls:

Gallup - McCain 47/ Obama 46
(down from a high of 49/44 a week ago)

Rasmussen - McCain 48/ Obama 47
(down from 49/46 a few days ago)

Research 2000 (which includes third-party options)-
Obama 48/ McCain 44

Compare those to these non-tracking polls:

ARG - McCain 48/ Obama 45
GWU - McCain 48/ Obama 44

I think the main thing to remember here is that all of these polls are within the margin of error, or very close.

It will be interesting to see if the Gallup poll equalizes again tomorrow.

Palin's favorability numbers have evened out

2008-09-16T14:52:00.001Z

All the hubbub over Palin means that people have chosen sides.

You either love her or you hate her.

That's what I don't like about her. I think we've had enough of that type of person in Washington.

I have to say it again...

2008-09-16T13:24:00.003Z

Joe Biden is on fire. Here he is in St Clair Shores, Michigan.

By the way, the GOP denies the foreclosure list tactic.

Did the blog make it up?

What's going on in Michigan?

2008-09-16T13:22:00.001Z

People whose homes were foreclosed to lose their vote? Challenged on non-residency grounds?

I think this will mobilize Michiganders to get out the vote.

Michigan Republicans plan to foreclose African-American voters

The chairman of the Republican Party in Macomb County, Michigan, a key swing county in a key swing state, is planning to use a list of foreclosed homes to block people from voting in the upcoming election as part of the state GOP’s effort to challenge some voters on Election Day.

“We will have a list of foreclosed homes and will make sure people aren’t voting from those addresses,” party chairman James Carabelli told Michigan Messenger in a telephone interview earlier this week. He said the local party wanted to make sure that proper electoral procedures were followed.

State election rules allow parties to assign “election challengers” to polls to monitor the election. In addition to observing the poll workers, these volunteers can challenge the eligibility of any voter provided they “have a good reason to believe” that the person is not eligible to vote. One allowable reason is that the person is not a “true resident of the city or township.”

Only Obama gets Pakistan

2008-09-16T13:05:00.001Z

This from Christopher Hitchens. I agree.

Time Zone time

2008-09-16T11:43:00.003Z

ON election night, we see results come in from the EST time zone first. This will be a test for how the Dems' turnout operation works.

If Obama wins Virginia and New Hampshire, it's a very good sign. If he wins Florida too, there is no way the Repub's can eke out a victory. That's because even if they take Ohio, Michigan, New Mexico, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada, they still lose. Virginia plus Florida would equal an electoral lock for the Dems, but more likely it would signal that the impressive ground game operation is working, and could perhaps be a harbinger of electoral landslide.

If the GOP takes New Hampshire and Virginia, then the Dems will have to really hope their Western strategy works.

Electoral math

2008-09-16T11:32:00.002Z

The amazing thing is that Obama doesn't even need both Colorado and Virginia, just one of them.

That's right, Obama can lose Ohio, Florida and win only one of Colorado and Virginia, and he still wins.

How? By holding onto (from the 2004 results) Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, and adding Iowa, New Mexico (both look likely) and either Colorado or Virginia.

Here's a map you can play with.

Now, try adding Iowa and New Mexico to the 2004 states. Just doing that puts Obama at 264, just 6 points shy.

What will be the tipping point state? I would venture the following, in this rough order:

1) Colorado (9 points)
2) Virginia (13 points)
3) Ohio (20 points)
4) Florida (27 points)
5) Missouri (11 points)
6) Indiana (11 points)

If Obama wins Nevada, it would make it a 269-all split, in which case a stray electoral vote peeled away from Nebraska could affect the outcome.

But what if Obama loses both Ohio and Michigan (a much more likely scenario than Wisconsin or Minnesota moving)?

Losing Michigan would be a real disaster for the Dems. But not the end of the world.
Ohio & Michigan to the Repubs, Colorado and Virginia to the Dems would again result in a 269 split. The Dems would need a tiebreaker of some sort, most likely Nevada.

The key message here for the Dems is that they need to work Colorado and Virginia slightly more than Ohio and Florida, but they need to work Michigan most of all to keep it in the fold.

Quietly kicking ass

2008-09-16T10:26:00.004Z

Biden hasn't gotten much coverage, but his stump speech on the campaign trail has been quietly kicking ass and taking names.

Check out these snippets from Michigan, New Hampshire, and Missouri.

Lower than Low

2008-09-16T10:18:00.003Z

Watch for this story to get bigger in the next couple of days.

Shadowy operatives are running slimy push-polls (the same tactic used against McCain in South Carolina in 2000). These are aimed at Jewish voters, and ask what they would think of Obama if they knew he had donated to the PLO, and suchlike.

That's not change we can believe in!

Read about it here and here and here.

And different push polls in Ohio.

Colin Powell, sitting on the fence

2008-09-16T10:17:00.002Z

Said today that an Obama win would be 'electrifying', though...

Check out these pics of McCain's mostly-empty rally

2008-09-16T10:08:00.002Z

Yesterday, in Jacksonville, Florida, McCain without Sarah 'Lipstick' Palin got 3,000 people - in a 16,000 seat arena.

You won't see these pictures on TV!

Check the Fact Checkers

2008-09-16T09:59:00.002Z

Okay, here are two good nonpartisan, unbiased Fact Check websites:

http://www.factcheck.org/

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/

Politifact gave a 'Pants on Fire' rating to McCain for the following ads:

1) Obama was referring to Palin when he said 'lipstick on a pig'

2) Obama pushed to have 'comprehensive sex education for kindergartners'
(they wrote 'an absurd claim about a bill that never passed)

Politifact gave a 'barely true' rating to the following:

1) Palin's claim that she secured a 40-billion dollar gas pipeline

2) McCain's claim that Education Week said Obama hadn't made an impact on education

3) The claim that Palin 'stopped the Bridge to Nowhere'

And see this article by Factcheck.org on the claim that Obama has been 'disrespectful' to Sarah Palin:

Funny stuff

2008-09-16T09:56:00.002Z

McCain's campaign at the moment puts me in mind of the brilliant Frank Caliendo doing Al Pacino...

Check it out.

Liar, Liar, your pants...

are on FIAHHH!

Some good news

2008-09-16T09:52:00.002Z

Obama is ahead in Virginia.

I am increasingly thinking that this election is going to be won or lost in Virginia and Colorado, not Ohio, Pennsylvania or Florida.

Obama has to hold on to Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota, but he can afford to lose Ohio and Florida, which he probably will.

But this Virginia poll, taken at a time which could have been McCain's peak, is very good news.

Note: slightly Republican-leaning Rasmussen has them tied in the Commonwealth on the same day.

Words to Barracuda eerily prescient

2008-09-16T09:51:00.001Z

Okay, read the lyrics:

You lying so low in the weeds
I bet you gonna ambush me
You’d have me down, down, down, down on my knees
Now wouldn’t you, barracuda?
...
And if the real thing don’t do the trick
You better make up something quick
You gonna burn, burn, burn, burn, burn it to the wick
Ooh, barracuda!

Read about it here.

Musicians pissed off at McCain

2008-09-16T09:48:00.002Z

Heart gets cease-and-desist order for Sarah Palin's use of the song 'Barracuda'.

Van Halen and John Mellencamp mad at McCain for similar reasons.

Read about it here.

Back In Session

2008-09-14T12:38:00.001Z

Okay, I have decided to funnel some of my nervous energy back in to the Session between now and the election.

For those of you who have been worrying about Obama running out of money, think again:

The Obama campaign raised $66 million in August, with half a million new donors.

And remember that Palin wasn't even announced until near the end of the month. I suspect that September will be even bigger for Obama, with Palin energizing many Dem's to donate.

His previous best month was sometime back in the spring, with 55 mil.

Check it out.

Carpool: It's Patriotic!

2008-06-30T13:39:00.002Z

Secret Supers for Obama?

2008-04-30T16:55:00.001Z

This is not the first time I've heard hints of this - that Obama has enough superdelegates squirreled away, and that they are just waiting for the primaries to be over before they declare themselves. This time it comes from Sen. McAskill of Missouri. I guess we'll just have to wait and see...

Oh dear.

2008-04-28T16:49:00.000Z

Ochone! Japanese whisky is voted the best in world

Yes, Obama can win the general election

2008-04-28T07:52:00.002Z

I've been talking to a lot of people who say that Obama will take the Democratic nomination - eventually - but will be so hammered into the ground that McCain will win in November. They say that he will be another McGovern, another Hart, another John Kerry.

But I don't buy it. Remember how, just a couple of months ago, people were writing about the death of the Republican party, and how they were so fractured they would never come together under John McCain? A month is a decade in politics. If the Dem's wrap things up in June, all this hand-wringing will be a distant memory by the time of the first general election debate.

And this really isn't like previous election years. People actually are genuinely tired of negative political campaigns. And then there's this:

"""
The past seven states to hold primaries registered more than 1 million new Democratic voters; Republican numbers mainly ebbed or stagnated. North Carolina and Indiana, which will hold their presidential primaries on May 6, are reporting a swell of new Democrats that triples the surge in registrations before the 2004 primary.

Those people aren't stupid. They want the war to end. They want health care. They want transparency, accountability and integrity in government. They want it bad. They aren't going to stay home just so they can make a point.

So, everybody take a breather, see how May 6th plays out. I personally think, as reported on Politico.com, that the superdels will declare themselves after all the states have voted. If Obama wins with more than the margin that the Florida delegates would have given Hillary, then she will probably concede. If Obama keeps tanking, the superdels will opt for Hillary. Either way, a Democrat is moving to Pennsylvania Avenue.

"""

RIP, Danny Federici

2008-04-24T09:21:00.001Z

Hey Eddie, can you lend me a few bucks
And tonight can you get us a ride
Gotta make it through the tunnel
Got a meeting with a man on the other side

Dead Heat in Pennsylvania

2008-04-07T08:24:00.001Z

New ARG poll (6 April)

Clinton 45%
Obama 45%
Undecided or someone else 10%

That is up from a 51/39 split in their last poll (March 27).

Obama closing the gap in Penn, Indiana

2008-04-04T11:19:00.002Z

INDIANA

April 1, Survey USA (+9)
Clinton 52
Obama 43

April 3, Research 2000 (+3)
Clinton 49
Obama 46

PENNSYLVANIA

April 1, Rasmussen (+5)
Clinton 47
Obama 42

April 1, Survey USA (+12)
Clinton 53
Obama 41

April 2, Quinnipiac (+9)
Clinton 50
Obama 41

April 2, PPP (-2)
Obama 45
Clinton 43

April 3, Strategic Vision (+8)
Clinton 49
Obama 41

April 3, Insider Adv (+2)
Clinton 45
Obama 43

By the way...

2008-04-02T09:49:00.001Z

MSNBC seems to be the only news channel where the political shows involve people talking to each other like adults much of the time.

I guess that's why it's ratings are so low.

First time since 2001, CNN beats Fox.

2008-04-02T09:41:00.002Z

As much as I dislike CNN for its really pathetically bad quality journalism much of the time, and its insistence on eye-candy over brains and talent in its newsreaders and presenters, I would still rather have mediocre over pure propagandistic evil.

In the first quarter of 2008:

CNN - viewers 25-54 (because young people and old people apparently don't count!):
up 90%

MSNBC - up 68%

FOX News - up 12%

Among total viewers, apparently, Fox is still ahead:
Fox up 14%
CNN up 68%
MSNBC up 59%.

Off to the races

2008-04-02T09:10:00.002Z

So, where do the two candidates stand in the running for the remaining Democratic primaries? Let's check the polls.

PENNSYLVANIA. April 22nd.

Clinton 47%
Obama 42%
Und. 11%
(Rasmussen. Apr. 1)

Clinton 53%
Obama 41%
Und. 6%
(Survey USA. Apr. 1)

GUAM. May 3rd.

You guess is as good as mine for this caucus.

INDIANA. May 6th.

Clinton 52%
Obama 43%
Und. 5%
(Survey USA, Apr. 1)

NORTH CAROLINA. May 6th.

Real Clear Politics average of polls by PPP, Insider Advantage, Survey USA and Rasmussen covering period since March 6th gives the following:

Obama 49.8
Clinton 37.8
Und. 12.4

WEST VIRGINIA. May 13th.

Clinton 55%
Obama 27%
Und. 18%
(Rasmussen. Mar. 20th)

KENTUCKY. May 20th.

Clinton 58%
Obama 29%
Und. 13%
(Survey USA. Mar. 31st)

OREGON. May 20th.

No polls since January. Obama is widely seen as having an advantage here.

PUERTO RICO. June 1st.

No polls available. Clinton is widely seen as having an advantage here.

MONTANA. June 3rd.

No polls since December. Obama is widely seen as having an advantage here.

SOUTH DAKOTA. June 3rd.

No polls available. Obama is widely seen as having an advantage here.

Veepstakes

2008-03-30T18:48:00.002Z

In the neverending conversation with myself that is this blog, I am once again throwing the gauntlet to you, the fictitious readers of this blog!

Prove your non-fictitiousness by participating in the Veepstakes Contest!

Here is how it works: send in who you think the Democratic nominee and John McCain will pick as their Vice Presidential running mates.

Write it as a comment or email it to me.

Whoever wins becomes Progressionsession Reader Of The Month and I will buy you a drink next time I see you.

Let the Veepstakes begin!

PS All entries must be in by the time of the Pennsylvania primary, April 22nd.

Obama pulling ahead in national polls

2008-03-30T18:44:00.002Z

In the Gallup, daily tracking poll, Obama has been gradually pulling ahead of Hillary CLinton and out of the margin of error. Today's poll gives him a ten point lead, 52%-42%. THis is the first time that Obama has got over 50% in the tracking poll.

I would guess that the general notion that the race is effectively over and that the numbers just don't add up for Hillary is starting to spread, and some people are sending out the message that we should wrap this up. OR, another way of putting it is that Obama is gaining the air of inevitability, which tends to consolidate support.

Scattering of more recent polls mostly good news for Obama

2008-03-28T10:02:00.004Z

Pew Poll (nationally)

Obama 49%
Clinton 39%
Undecided 12%

Insider Advantage Poll - North Carolina primary

Obama 49%
Clinton 34%
Undecided 17%

Gallup Poll (nationally)

Obama 48%
Clinton 44%
Undecided 8%

Rasmussen Poll (nationally)

Clinton 46%
Obama 44%
Undecided 10%

NBC/ WSJ Poll (nationally)

Obama 45%
Clinton 45%
Undecided 10%

MATCH-UPS against McCain

NBC/ WSJ Poll

Obama 44/ McCain 42
McCain 46/ Clinton 44

Quinnipiac poll

Obama would win CT by 17 points
Hillary would win CT by 3 points

Rasmussen Poll

Obama would win OR by 6 points
Clinton would lose OR by 6 points

PPIC Poll

Obama would win CA by 9 points
Clinton would win CA by 3 points

Rasmussen - nationally

Obama would lose by 1 point
Clinton would lose by 3 points

Gallup - nationally

Obama would lose by 2 points
Clinton would lose by 3 points

And according to that NBC/WSJ poll, the Wright controversy seems to have mainly had this effect. He only went down two points in terms of people with a positive opinion of him, from 51 to 49. The people with a negative opinion of him went up from 28 to 32.

The real shocker was that in that same poll, Hillary's positive rankings took a nose dive, from 45 to 37, and her negatives went up from 43 to 48. So the positive/ negative numbers for the two candidates are now:

Obama 49/32
Clinton 37/48

I was very surprised by this. The consensus seems to be that this is due to her selective memory on Bosnia, but it still seems strange that a relatively minor event would cause such a huge change. I wonder if this has anything to do with the fact that most people now realize that the only way that Clinton can win is to have superdelegates 'overturn' or 'reverse' the decision of the pledged delegates. Or, in other words, that Obama's pledged delegate lead is insurmountable and that the gap in numbers will probably be the same a month from now as it is today. I just think that most voters don't want this nomination to be decided in that way.

I think that unless Clinton does much better than expected on April 22nd and May 6th, she'll drop out. Maybe she'll go through to Puerto Rico. And if something happens and she starts picking up big wins, all bets are off. But if things go as expected, there will come a time when there's just no point in continuing.

I just want to reiterate again that this is not some kind of personal animus against Hillary, and I realize that Obama does not have a huge mandate, but with the system we've got at the moment, the math just doesn't work for Hillary, and dem's the facts.

I SHALL BE RELEASED

2008-03-28T09:55:00.002Z

Siegelman is getting out of jail, on bond, thanks to the Circuit Court of Appeals.

For anyone who didn't see the 60 Minutes piece or the MSNBC follow-ups with Dan Abrams, Siegelman was a Democratic governor of Alabama whose case is typical of the politicization of the Department of Justice under the influence of Karl Rove. This case was first thrown out of court by a federal judge. THen it was brought in front of a new judge, the husband of the US Attorney who was bringing the trumped-up charges. He was marched directly out of court in handcuffs and straight to jail, which never happens in political cases such as this.

Anyway, now he's getting out. It's amazing what can happen when the national media starts doing its job instead of just following the horse-race, cheerleading and doing stories about Britney Spears.

Reid: it will be done

2008-03-26T12:55:00.000Z

Reid to the rescue?

The Bookies

2008-03-26T12:52:00.001Z

Just so you know, the bookies give Hillary an 19.2% chance of winning.

David Brooks at the NY Times

2008-03-26T12:49:00.000Z

"Now, she’s probably down to a 5 percent chance.

Five percent.

Let’s take a look at what she’s going to put her party through for the sake of that 5 percent chance: The Democratic Party is probably going to have to endure another three months of daily sniping. For another three months, we’ll have the Carvilles likening the Obamaites to Judas and former generals accusing Clintonites of McCarthyism. For three months, we’ll have the daily round of résumé padding and sulfurous conference calls. We’ll have campaign aides blurting “blue dress” and only-because-he’s-black references as they let slip their private contempt."

A way to move on.

2008-03-26T12:20:00.003Z

Let's look a little more at where things might stand after May 6th.

Let's take my earlier scenario and say that Obama does pretty well and loses Penn. by 8 points, wins NC by ten points and Indiana by 4 points. What would the delegate situation be then? Let's also say there's a tie in Guam.

Pledged delegates gained in these 4 primaries:
Obama - 175
Clinton - 174

Each candidate currently stands at (in pledged delegates):
Obama - 1406
Clinton - 1249

Where the candidates would stand in pledged del's on May 7th:
Obama - 1581
Clinton - 1423

Let's add in the superdelegates who have already declared:
Obama - 209
Clinton - 246

Giving a potential total on May 7th of:
Obama - 1790
Clinton - 1669.

Today, the difference between them is 120 delegates.
On May 7th, the difference might potentially be 121 delegates.
So the gap is likely to stay the same.

Now, the total number of votes a candidate needs to clinch the nomination is 2024.

Obama might be 234 votes short on May 7th. There are 339 undeclared superdelegates, not including Michigan and Florida. If 234 of them came out on May 7th and endorsed Obama, this thing would be over.

While that is unlikely, it is true that a significant group of superdelegates acting en masse could wrap things up. I thing this would be better happening in mid-May than mid-June. Even if 100 new superdelegates came out in support of Obama, then we could avoid a months-long protracted battle. If 100 superdelegates came out for Obama, he would have an insurmountable lead of 220, and it would be over.

Who knows? Anything could happen. Thoughts?

Memo to Rush: mind your own business

2008-03-26T12:13:00.003Z

I wish Republicans would quit interfering in the Democratic nomination process. I am sick of Limbaugh's army of dittoheads trying to sow the seeds of chaos.

Think this whole thing is overblown? Check out this story from the Seattle Times.

The gist: "About 100,000 GOP loyalists voted for her in Ohio, 119,000 in Texas, and about 38,000 in Mississippi, exit polls show."

If Obama loses in heavily Republican Indiana, which has open voting, and this thing gets dragged out another month, I will indeed be dismayed. I really don't have anything against Hillary (I do have a problem with Mark Penn), but it's over.

Actually, I think it's fair to let the voters speak after the whole Wright controversy. But after Pennsylvania, North CArolina and Indiana, if Obama has shown that he has weathered this storm, then let's get to work. We're getting creamed, and somebody has to present the Democratic case on foreign policy, the economy, health care, immigration and other issues to the nation at large.

Polls this week suggest strong recovery from Obama

2008-03-26T11:49:00.002Z

We have been waiting for polls to come out that show the effect of Obama's big speech on race. Nearly 3 and a half million people have watched that speech on YouTube now.

Anyway, polls are showing a pretty strong recovery.

In national polls against Clinton:

Gallup Tracking: Obama has held small lead (1-3 points) over Clinton since last Thursday, after five days of Clinton taking a small lead. They are for all intents and purposes still neck-and-neck, as they have been for weeks.

Rasmussen Tracking: Clinton has had a 1-3 point lead since the 22nd.

There haven't been any 'one-off' polls with data collected in the last week to 10 days, and these polls have tighter methodologies and a larger sample size. I am curious what the next Gallup, CNN, CBS and Newsweek polls might show, but I'm sure it will still be very close.

DEMOCRATS VERSUS McCAIN:

The latest polls show McCain opening up a lead versus Democrats. Arguably, this is because Democrats are ripping each other apart while McCain is travelling around the world acting presidential. I still think this isn't something to worry about too much, but Dems need to get their act together soon...

UPCOMING PRIMARIES:

Pennsylvania. The newest poll, a Rasmussen poll taken after Obama's speech, has Clinton 49- Obama 39.

North Carolina. A PPP poll, out today, gives Obama a whopping 21-point lead over Clinton, 55-34. Even if all the undecideds broke for Hillary, Obama would have a ten-point win over Clinton.

Indiana. Like NC, this red state votes on May 6th. There aren't any recent polls for Indiana, but 20% of the state is in the Chicago media market and Obama is favored to win the state, albeit perhaps narrowly.

MY QUESTION IS THIS:

If Obama closes the gap in Pennsylvania and loses the state by a small margin than predicted, say 5-10%, and wins North Carolina soundly, say 10%, and then takes Indiana, will that have proved his 'electability'? Will Clinton concede at that point? Again, I wouldn't necessarily mind this if I thought Hillary could win this in a way that didn't seem undemocratic and turn off loads of first-time voters. I wouldn't necessarily mind this thing going to a brokered convention if there was an honest path to her nomination. (Yes, Michigan and Florida should have revoted, but that's just the way the cookie crumbles. It was very unlikely after everything that happened that the two campaigns were going to agree on anything) We're getting our asses kicked by the Republicans, and we should be out there fighting them. Instead, the Clinton campaign is out there implying that McCain would be a better president than Obama.

What do you think? How big would Obama have to win for Hillary to bow out gracefully?

Just a small-town senator, on a Saturday night

2008-03-25T16:58:00.004Z

They've got a crush on McCain - and apparently on cheesy 70s disco anthems:

It just seems like a really odd choice of song to try and do the "I've got a crush on Obama" thing, but for McCain. Since then, I've been looking for a better tune.

The best I can come up with is:

Hall & Oates, She's a Maniac.

"She's a McCainiac, McCainiac, and she's dancing like she's never danced before"

Strangely, some of the actual lyrics to "She's a Maniac" seem almost prophetic:

On the ice-filled line of sanity
It's a place most never see
It's a hard-won place of mystery
You can touch it but can't hold it

Can any of you guys think of a better McCain theme?

New poll puts Obama only ten points down in PA

2008-03-25T16:14:00.003Z

A new Rasmussen poll gives Clinton a ten-point lead over Obama in Pennsylvania.

Clinton: 49
Obama: 39
undecided: 12

This has got to be good news for Obama, who was 26 points down in the last major poll there.

ELECTORAL MATH

2008-03-25T11:00:00.002Z

Okay, I've already shown how Obama can win the general election even if he loses the traditional swing states of Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. He would have to win traditional swing states of New Mexico and Iowa as well as Nevada, Colorado and Virginia. Nevada and Colorado are more likely if he picks Bill Richardson as veep; Virginia is more likely if he picks Kaine, the governor of Virginia.

What would be the best case scenario? I'v already said that there could be a very close electoral race with a popular vote blowout, based on indications of record Democratic turnout and the likelihood of much tighter margins in red states in the South, as well as some Plains red states like Nebraska and Kansas, where Obama has been polling higher than Dems usually do.

But the best case scenario for me would be a blowout all the way. In electoral votes, that would mean sweeping the states I outlined above, plus North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and North Carolina. That would result in a 356 - 182 victory for the Democrats. Likely? No. Possible? Yes.

Reno Failure

2008-03-24T15:38:00.005Z

I promised myself I wouldn't come up with a 'What happens in Vegas' pun headline, so chomp on this one.

Apropos of my earlier piece, Nevada is still looking good for Barack Obama.

So set your barockometer to Reno time.

Rasmussen has got a poll out today showing Obama with a four-point lead over McCain in Nevada, as opposed to a one-point lead for Hillary. And that's with only 4% undecideds.

So McCain better watch out for that 'reno failure'.

Put me out of my misery...

Obama wrote the race speech himself

2008-03-24T14:12:00.002Z

No help from speechwriters, under considerable pressure, and over two days and nights, finishing it the night before.

Apparently the last time a president or candidate wrote a major speech completely on his own was in 1969.

Obama confronted Wright on his views

2008-03-24T14:10:00.001Z

But the church itself is not crackpot.

LOL?

2008-03-24T13:54:00.002Z

Hillary. Obama's aide called her a monster; her own aide called her The Terminator.

Don't forget to comment

2008-03-24T13:48:00.001Z

Check it out: Scroll down to talk about Hillary's chances of winning, the effect of Wright scandal on Obama, and other topics.

Pennsylvaniac

2008-03-24T13:02:00.004Z

A quandary has developed. Prominent journalists and pundits like Adam Nagourney and the folks at Politico.com are saying that Hillary is all but finished. On the other hand, Pennsylvania, which votes on April 22nd, is strongly favored to go to Hillary, and the Obama campaign has been working hard to lower expectations. The latest poll there has Hillary winning by 26 points.

The big argument here is that Democrats need Pennsylvania to win in November. It was one of the few very close swing states (unlike Ohio, Missouri, New Mexico, and Iowa) that actually went for Kerry in 2004.

Using the handy-dandy Electoral Vote calculator at the Wall Street Journal's Opinion Journal [now owned by He Whose Name Shall Not Be Mentioned], let's look at Obama's chances, and how we might redraw the political map.

Starting with the 2004 results [by the way it's snowing outside my window], the Dems got 252 to the GOP's 286. If the Dems had won Ohio [no comment, Mr Blackwell], they would have won the contest by 272/266. But how might Obama change the electoral landscape?

Well, let's check out scenarios using the big swing states from the last couple times:
FLORIDA
IOWA
NEW MEXICO
PENNSYLVANIA
OHIO

The GOP would like to say that Minnesota and Michigan are trending Republican, but I don't rate them as seriously in play this year, when larger trends are favoring the Democrats. I also think that New Hampshire will stay blue, mainly due to McCain's strong Iraq War 4Evr policy. Okeedoke.

The Republicans are going to win Florida, and that probably would be true even if the DNC hadn'r refused to seat their delegates or the fact that the Republican Secretary of State (paging the ghost of Katherine Harris's past facelifts) still run the show (statewide recount? why would we want to that? Okay, I'm not bitter)

Right. McCain is spending a lot of time with Joe Lieberman, going on trips to Israel, while Jeremiah Wright tapes slamming 'state terrorism' by Israel circulate. McCain is going for the Jewish vote; he's going for the elderly vote and he's going for Florida. The last poll there put him 11 points ahead, and he'll probably win it.

Will Obama win any states in the South? MAybe. We'll come back to that.

Let's go out west. Even though Oregon and Washington are pretty evenly split between Dems and Repubs, they've gone blue the last two time and will continue to do so this time around. New Mexico - razor thin wins for the Dems in 2000 and the GOP in 2004. This time it will go strongly for Obama, particularly if he names Bill Richardson as his veep, which I have been saying for weeks that he will. This looks particularly liekly after last week's endorsement. Obama needs help among Hispanic voters, and Richardson has tons of foreign policy experience. Good stuff all around in my opinion. Let's put New Mexico in the Dem column. What's more, a 50-state Survey USA poll out in early March gave Obama the win there by 7 points.

In the Midwest, Obama can count on Iowa. They supported him strongly in the caucus, if that counts for anything. That Survey USA poll had Obama winning by 9 points.

Missouri is not looking so good for Obama. I think McCain will take it.

With this scenario, Florida going to McCain and New Mexico and Iowa going to Obama, the numbers are such:

McCain: 254
Obama: 243
unallocated: 41

That leaves Ohio and Pennsylvania. If we follow the 2004 pattern and give PA to Obama and OH to McCain, the numbers are:

McCain: 274
Obama: 264

So, Obama would have to take Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa and New Mexico, leaving Florida and Missouri to McCain. That is a plausible scenario. But is it possible for Obama to win without making a strong showing Pennsylvania?

Is it true that Democrats need to win Pennsylvania to win in November?

Not necessarily. New states are in play.

That Survey USA poll gave Obama North Dakota by 4 points, Nevada by 5 points and Colorado by nine points? How does this scenario play out?

If Obama wins any one of those states and Ohio, he doesn't need to win in Florida, Missouri or Pennsylvania. If he wins Colorado and either Nevada or North Dakota and Virginia, he doesn't need Ohio, either. That poll put McCain and Obama tied for Virginia.

Obama is unlikely to win any other Southern state, although that poll put him only two points behind in North Carolina. On the other hand, he is likely to make Georgia, South Carolina, Mississippi and Louisiana very close. This will drive up the popular vote and may mean that Obama swings a relatively narrow electoral victory but with a big popular vote mandate.

Amazingly, that poll put Obama within reach in South Dakota (4 points) and Nebraska (3 points), but I don't see that happening, especially with Jeremiah Wright out of the bag. That poll also put New Hampshire and New Jersey in play for the GOP, but I see them swinging left in November.

So, what is my actual prediction? I'll be slightly optomistic, and say that Obama takes Pennsylvania and Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada, losing North Dakota, Virginia and Florida narrowly. What would that give in electoral votes?

Obama:298
McCain:240

The same setup, with the GOP winning the Pennsylvaniacs?

Obama:277
McCain:261

What do you think?

Tell me your deepest secrets...

2008-03-23T16:31:00.002Z

Or at least your passing thoughts about another current issue.

TOPIC 2: Are Hillary's chances shot?

Prominent pundits have been saying the last few days that Hillary's chances are pretty much over. This consensus among some has come together after Obama's seeming ability to move past the race issue, the presidential quality of his speech, the endorsement by New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, a seeming bounceback in the polls versus Hillary, and, most importantly, the fact that there will not be revotes in Florida and Michigan.

a) Does HIllary still have a fighting chance?

b) Is the media downplaying her chances, or making the race seem more even to keep the story going?

c) Will Hillary win Pennsylvania? North Carolina? Indiana?

d) Will the superdelegates move to Hillary's camp; and, if so, will it turn off all the new voters who have shown up so far to vote for Obama?

e) Will this nomination fight go all the way to the convention in Denver in August?

I'd love to hear your thoughts on any or all of these issues.

Happy Easter!
MHH

Jeremiad

2008-03-23T16:26:00.003Z

Recent phone conversations have led me to believe that, contrary to popular opinion, this blog does have some occasional readers.

So, I want to start asking your opinions on the issues. Just use the comments box below to write whatever you like. I'll post interesting opinions as main articles.

Okay, so here we go.

TOPIC ONE: OBAMA AND RACE

a) What's the deal with Dr Jeremiah Wright? Are his statements just soundbites taken out of context? Is Obama's church racist? Does Obama share Wright's views? What about all the good work the Trinity United Church of Christ has done in terms of education and AIDS relief in poor communities?

b) What about Obama's speech? The best thing since Martin Luther King, or a political ploy that merely sought to make his problems go away?

c) What affect will this gave on Obama's campaign? Will white voters be more reluctant to vote for him now? Will it lose him important swing states like Pennsylvania and Ohio in the general election?

Republicans for Hillary

2008-03-12T08:56:00.001Z

Why do I suspect that their motives aren't pure?

According to MSNBC's exit polling, Republicans who voted in yesterday's primary went for Hillary over Obama, 3 to 1.

Things that make you go... damn.

Crappy Map, version 4

2008-03-10T13:47:00.004Z

Just a reminder, this is based on the popular vote. If the criterion were delegate leads, Nevada and Texas would go to Obama.

Obama retakes national lead in Gallup tracking poll

2008-03-10T08:45:00.002Z

Obama 47- Clinton 45

That puts Hillary's post-Ohio bounce at 4 days.

I think that Ohio will turn out to be something like Clinton's victory in California. She did better than expected, and won, but after a couple more Obama victories the momentum was gone.

The Clinton campaign certainly seems to be putting all options on the table, from a joint ticket with Obama (as veep) to actually trying to flip pledged delegates from Obama's camp. That's right - not superdelegates, but actual, voted-for, pledged delegates. NOt a good sign.

Florida

2008-03-06T16:20:00.002Z

this from the Democratic chair of the state:

"It is important also that we are clear about one issue. At this time, no suggested alternative process has been able to meet three specific and necessary requirements: the full participation from both candidates, a guaranteed commitment of the millions of dollars it will cost to conduct the event and a detailed election plan that would enfranchise all Florida Democrats, including our military service members serving in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere."

IT sounds like she is going to push for the state to ask the Convention Credentials Committee to seat the delegates from the disqualified primary. I don't see the national party allowing this, especially if it is the one thing that would overturn Obama's delegate lead. I still think, however, that that won't be the case - I think Obama will probably have the numbers to pull it off even without this advantage, but we'll wait and see how far Hillary's comeback bounce lasts. Could be a week, could be two months...

Howard Dean said this today about Fla. and Mich.

2008-03-06T16:18:00.001Z

"First, either state can choose to resubmit a plan and run a party process to select delegates to the convention; second, they can wait until this summer and appeal to the Convention Credentials Committee, which determines and resolves any outstanding questions about the seating of delegates. We look forward to receiving their proposals should they decide to submit new delegate selection plans and will review those plans at that time. The Democratic Nominee will be determined in accordance with party rules, and out of respect for the presidential campaigns and the states that did not violate party rules, we are not going to change the rules in the middle of the game."

my math

2008-03-06T09:14:00.002Z

Using Slate's delegate calculator, and giving Hillary the benefit of the doubt in many upcoming races, i.e., giving her a ten-point lead in Pennsylvania and the win in Guam, West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico, and giving Obama only relatively modest wins in Mississippi, Oregon, North Carolina, Wyoming, Indiana, Montana and South Dakota, that still would leave Obama with 137 lead in pledged delegates and a total of 1673 delegates. With these numbers, Obama would need 352 superdelegates to reach the 'magic number' of 2025. That's less than half the superdelegates. According to 2008 Democratic Convention Watch (.com), Obama has 199 superdelegates in his camp at the moment. That means holding on to those superd's and gaining 153 more. Basically, Obama has to just stay viable for the rest of the race, and with every state he survives from here on out, the closer that he gets to saying that he has the magic number and the fewer are the chances for a Clinton resurgence.

The bad news for the Hillary campaign is that effectively the only way she can win at this point is to somehow destroy Obama utterly, which seems unlikely, or to resurrect Michigan and Florida, which will piss off a lot of the superdelegates, as party insiders, and will give off the air of breaking the rules. Even then, it's a long shot. The numbers are close, but the numbers are tight.

Pledged delegates

2008-03-06T09:07:00.002Z

Let's talk about pledged delegates. It's virtually impossible for Clinton to win on these. Her best chance is to narrow that gap, take the popular vote lead nationwide, seat the Michigan and Florida delegates any way she can, and hope to convince enough superdelegates to come to her side. To reiterate: it is virtually impossible for Hillary to get the nomination without superdelegates reversing an almost inevitable Obama lead in pledged, ie., elected, delegates.

THis from Slate:

"We've updated our calculator to take last night's results into account, and the news isn't good for Clinton. To catch Barack Obama in pledged delegates, she now needs an average margin of victory of 23 points."

TO put that in perspective, Hillary's big Ohio win was by 10 points.

How big is Obama's popular vote lead?

2008-03-06T08:40:00.002Z

NOT INCLUDING FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN:

598,266

INCLUDING FLORIDA:

303,494

INCLUDING FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN (i.e., no votes in Mich. for Obama):

24,657

But this last number is unlikely, as even in the worst scenario for Obama, the 40% non-Hillary votes in Michigan would probably be allocated to him.

Let's compare this to some numbers from this Tuesday:

Hillary's 10-point lead in Ohio produced these numbers:
229,873

Hillary's 3-point lead in Texas produced these numbers:
98,467

Hillary clearly has opportunities to narrow the gap in the popular vote, which isn't that big anymore, but she'll need some more blowouts of the scale of Ohio if she wants to do that. Her best options would be Pennsylvania and a do-over of Florida. She has a good chance of winning in West Virginia and Kentucky, but is unlikely to get those kinds of numbers there. Furthermore, Obama will probably increase his popular vote lead in the contests in Mississippi, Oregon and North Carolina.

Prepare for the national campaign between HRC and BHO to get a lot more negative.

The leaker of the Canadian NAFTA-gate story has been exposed now, and it turns out that he was actually more critical of the Clinton campaign than Obama. Prepare to see Obama try to use this on Hillary to gain traction in Western Pennsylvania, which is like Ohio in many ways.

We'll keep you posted here.

Obama and Hillary would both beat McCain in new poll

2008-03-06T08:35:00.002Z

A new Washington Post poll shows the following results - good news for Dems in general and Obama in particular.

Obama 52
McCain 40
Undecided 8

Clinton 50
McCain 44
Undecided 6

This shows that Obama would take two percentage points, presumably independents, from McCain, and move a further two points into the uncertain column. Also good news that Hillary would win, as previous polls had her losing in a match-up with McCain.

Reality Check

2008-03-05T14:43:00.002Z

Well, a big night for Hillary - no doubting that. There are a number of factors going on here. Hillary's campaign has been running much stronger and has had a lot more cash on hand since they retooled and replaced her manager. She's been gaining momentum for the last couple of weeks and the notion that Obama has gotten an easy ride from the media while she has been the subject of negative coverage, so cleverly satirized on SNL, has clearly resonated with the public. Hillary has regained the ground she lost among working-class men in Wisconsin. Her 'kitchen sink' strategy managed to hold off the Obama onslaught. But her comedy-show charm offensive also was accompanied by negative ads, like the redux of the Walter Mondale, 1984 'commies are going to get your children if you vote for the other guy'. Previously, attempts to go negative (remember the plagiarism thing? the subtle racial references) backfired or fell flat. Now that Obama is the frontrunner, they are gaining traction.

Hillary had a huge advantage going into this campaign. Last year, it seemed like she had already been coronated as the de facto nominee, and with huge name recognition and her husband's big donors behind her, she was the ultimate Democratic Establishment Candidate. Now, she is the underdog and has had to reinvent her campaign, which had expected to have sown up the nomination by early February, and rewrite her narrative. She is having some serious success with this and is clearly in the driver's seat again.

But let's take a reality check here. Obama won more states than her on Super Tuesday and 11 in a row after that. His lead in pledged delegates is now just under a hundred, but let's put that in perspective. There were, if memory serves, 440 pledged delegates up for grabs in Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island last night. Hillary may have gained a net of about 10. It may be as low as 7, depending on the final numbers from the Texas caucus process.

This Saturday, Wyoming holds a caucus. If it is anything like Idaho, Utah, Kansas, and other western caucus states, Obama will lead with a sizeable margin. Clinton has probably got people on the ground there, so it may not be as big a lead, but expect Obama to regain some of those 7-10 delegates on Saturday.

Then, on the 11th, there's a primary in Mississippi. If this is anything like Louisiana and Alabama, African-American support there will again give Obama a big lead. Expect him to 'take back' the rest of Hillary's win on the 11th.

So, in a week, chances are that Obama's lead in pledged delegates will be more or less exactly the same as it was before last night.

Obama's campaign has been making some serious blunders lately, though. He should have denounced Farrakhan more firmly and without equivocating, and he should have never let his advisor speak to the Canadians. The weird thing is, the Clintons were responsible for NAFTA, and Obama has been critical of it, yet somehow Hillary dominated on the issue. That is bad campaign leadership, and it bodes poorly for the race with McCain. They need to get their act together and quit coasting.

Pennsylvania will be a long, hard slog, and if New Jersey, New York and Ohio are anything to go by, Hillary will have a real advantage here. Obama has got to get his Wisconsin mojo back of connecting with blue-collar voters, or it will be a bad night for him.

Anyway, it'll be a long six weeks, and a long time till the convention. At least I'll get more sleep.

Over and out.

Early voting

2008-03-05T01:51:00.003Z

IT looks like that supposed 'one percent' actually represents the hundreds of thousands of early voting numbers, which would be really good news for Barack Obama. Signs suggest that a lot of last-minute deciders could go for Clinton, so this should provide some cushion for BO.

One percent

2008-03-05T01:41:00.001Z

That's all the precincts we have in Texas yet, but at the moment, Obama has a big lead in the primaries there.

60 - 40 split

2008-03-05T01:40:00.002Z

This looks like the likely trajectory for Obama's win in Vermont. He needs 64% for the big delegate haul, but it has stayed at about 60/40 from 1% up to 27% of precincts reporting this evening.

They're already calling Vermont for Obama

2008-03-05T00:07:00.003Z

CNN, that is. NO actual numbers yet, though...

Today's Polls

2008-03-04T23:43:00.004Z

OHIO

Zogby: 44-44 tie

TEXAS

Zogby: Clinton 47 - Obama 44

Belo: Clinton 46 - Obama 45

Marks and Spencers to charge 5p for plastic bags

2008-02-28T13:21:00.003Z

This is great - maybe the other big chains will follow suit.

Imagine - 13 billion plastic bags every year in the UK alone! And this scheme reduces it by 70%. And they give away free bags for a month. Not bad.

Still something seriously weird about strange death of Prozac story

2008-02-26T18:38:00.002Z

Hmmm... huge new study finds people on Prozac might as well be taking sugar pills, and it's not even on Google News' listing of top ten Health stories. Jeez.

If this thing isn't picked up tomorrow, we know something is seriously wrong. I mean, the AP ignores the story outright? I ask you...

New PPP Poll shows dead heat in Texas

2008-02-26T18:26:00.002Z

Clinton - 48%
Obama - 48%

The interesting thing about this poll is that there are far fewer undecideds than the others we have looked - only 4% is unaccounted for.

TIME magazine: Republicans can't hold their liquor

2008-02-26T14:53:00.001Z

Watch out mixing that beer and wine.

Is American media burying the Prozac story?

2008-02-26T11:56:00.003Z

A huge new study has found that Prozac is hardly more effective than a placebo. But some media outlets are burying the story.

AFP is carrying it.

Reuters is carrying it.

The Associated Press has nothing.

Is this because the study was based in Britain and AFP and Reuters are European-based agencies? Either AP has missed a trick or is burying this.

I'm starting to think it's the latter.

This is front-page news in Britain.

The Independent

The Guardian

The Times

The Daily Telegraph is apparently not running it.

In Paris, Le Monde has the story.

The New York Times runs the Reuters story, but buried in the News section with a very unprovacative headline: Study Doubts Effectiveness Of Antidepressant Drugs

Compare that to the Murdoch-owned Times (of London): 'Depression drugs don’t work, finds data review' and, on the contents page, "Anti-depression drugs 'no better than placebo'" They also have an analysis piece explaining 'Why it is often better to prescribe conversation than antidepressant pills'.

This hugely important story is getting buried in the States.

Prozac no better than placebo

2008-02-26T11:42:00.000Z

Prozac, the bestselling antidepressant taken by 40 million people worldwide, does not work and nor do similar drugs in the same class, according to a major review released today.

233% increase in early voting in Austin

2008-02-26T09:33:00.002Z

Check out this nice little local news piece from Austin:

Tale of Texas Turnout

2008-02-26T09:21:00.002Z

'Early vote tallies compiled since Tuesday — the day early voting opened for the March 4 primary — show huge numbers of suburban voters turning up to vote Democrat. Texas suburbs have long been Republican strongholds, but the numbers indicate a huge shift.'

This from El Paso:

'More residents have cast ballots in the last six days of early voting than during the entire two week early voting period in 2000.'

From Tom Delay's old district, a 2-to-1 turnout so far for Democrats:

And in a sign of intense interest in the Democratic presidential primary race, 11,240 people had voted early in Fort Bend County as of Friday, with seven days of early voting left.

That easily tops the 10,710 Fort Bend County residents who cast ballots during the entire early voting period leading up to the March 7, 2006, primary elections.

According to early voting totals compiled by the Fort Bend County Elections Administration, 7,563 people had cast ballots in the Democratic primary as of the end of the day Friday, while just 3,677 did so in the Republican primary.

The Houston Chronicle reports that huge numbers of Republicans are turning out to vote for Democrats in early voting:

'An American Research Group poll released Monday showed Obama leading Clinton, 71 percent to 25 percent, among Texas independents and Republicans who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary.

There is scattered evidence across the state that some Republicans may be voting Democratic, at least for a day. In one precinct in the suburban Houston neighborhood of Kingwood, where 82 percent of voters cast ballots for President Bush in 2004, Democrats were outvoting Republicans 4-to-1 last week in early voting.'

Third poll gives Obama Texas lead

2008-02-26T09:14:00.001Z

First ARG, then CNN, now Survey USA:

Obama - 49%
Clinton - 45%

leaving...6%

Obama consolidates national lead in new polls

2008-02-26T09:09:00.003Z

CBS/ NY Times:
Obama 54
Clinton 38
leaving...8

USA Today/ Gallup:
Obama 51
Clinton 39
leaving...10

AP/ Ipsos:
Obama 46
Clinton 43
leaving...11

Obama pulls down endorsements in Texas

2008-02-26T09:00:00.002Z

Dallas Morning News

Fort-Worth Star-Telegram

Houston Chronicle

Austin American-Statesman

San Antonio Express-News

Second Texas Poll gives Obama lead

2008-02-26T08:58:00.001Z

This one from CNN:

Obama - 50%
Clinton - 46%

OBAMA NOW LEADING IN TEXAS

2008-02-25T19:34:00.002Z

A new poll out today show the Obamentum pushing B.O. over the top in the Lone Star State.

Obama - 50%
Clinton - 42%

The same polling firm, ARG, gives Hillary an 10-point lead over Barack in Ohio, 49-39.

Just a hunch.

2008-02-22T11:23:00.002Z

I predict that Hillary will concede in the week after March 11th.

She is looking like she won't do so hot on March 4th. Then you have Wyoming on March 8 and Mississippi on March 11th. I think Obama will win these, and it will look like a long hard road ahead to Pennsylvania. The money will be running out and people will start calling her asking her not to damage the party's chances. And she knows that a concession at that point would precipitate a sigh of relief that a disaster at the convention would be averted. In fact, she would come out of it smelling like roses and maybe even clinch a nice position (Sec of State?) in an Obama administration. Who knows...

Somebody owes me a Coke if I'm right...

Obama already having huge impact on Texas Dem turnout

2008-02-22T08:44:00.001Z

Turnout on the first day of early voting was up all across Texas, according to initial numbers from the Secretary of State's office. But Houston and Dallas were off the charts -- the numbers show a 10-fold increase over 2004. In Harris County four years ago, only 728 people showed up for the Democratic primary on the first day of early voting. Yesterday it was 9,243.

In Dallas, the first-day turnout jumped from 913 in 2004 to 8,615 yesterday. That would seem good news for Obama. Other urban counties such as Travis (Austin) and Bexar (San Antonio) showed six-fold increases. In El Paso, it tripled.

Turnout was up too in the Rio Grande Valley, an expected Clinton stronghold, but the increase wasn't as dramatic. In Hidalgo County, the number of voters rose from 3,858 (2004) to 5,793 (2008).

David Plouffe, the Obama campaign manager, told Texas reporters this afternoon on a conference call that the campaign has emphasized ushering supporters to the polls early and was very encouraged by the early voting numbers so far. Early voting ends Feb. 29.

Super Tuesday is finally over

2008-02-21T17:45:00.001Z

As the Democrats Abroad go for Obama.

Looks like he got about 65% of the vote.

Tonight's Democratic Debate

2008-02-21T17:42:00.001Z

From the Recreational Sports Center at UT Austin. This one is by invitation only.

A place I worked out at once.

Texas!

2008-02-21T08:32:00.003Z

Early voting (as opposed to postal voting) started in Texas yesterday. Records are already being broken. And more than twice as many Democrats voted yesterday than Republicans in this 'red state'.

TO maul a line from the Dixie Chicks, this does make me proud to be from Texas.

Anyway, here's the numbers from the state's most populous 15 counties, including Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Austin and El Paso:

Democrats: 65,293

Republicans: 25,673

Keep it up, Texas...

NINE IN A ROW

2008-02-20T11:04:00.003Z

Let's look at the margins of victory for Obama in the states he won on Super Tuesday and in the nine contests since then. The old thinking was that Obama was able to dominate in caucus settings, but this shows that he can win in primaries in states that were supposed to be a close finish with Hillary Clinton, like Virginia and Wisconsin. Check it out.

It's ten in a row when you include the U.S. Virgin Islands.

FEBRUARY 19TH

Wisconsin (primary) - 17% margin of victory

Hawaii (caucus) - 52% margin of victory

FEBRUARY 12TH

Virginia (P) - 29%

District of Columbia (P) - 51%

Maryland (P) - 27%

FEBRUARY 10TH

Maine (C) - 19%

FEBRUARY 9TH

Louisiana (P) - 21%

Nebraska (C) - 36%

Washington (C) - 3%

FEBRUARY 5TH (of the states Obama won)

Alabama (P) - 14%

Alaska (C) - 49%

Colorado (C) - 35%

Connecticut (P) - 4%

Delaware (P) - 11%

Georgia (P) - 35%

Idaho (C) - 63%

Illinois (P) - 32%

Kansas (C) - 48%

Minnesota (C) - 44%

Missouri (P) - 1%

North Dakota (C) - 24%

Utah (C) - 18%

OF all the states since Super Tuesday, i.e., the 9 in a row that Obama has won, five have been primaries and four have been caucuses. The average margin of victory in these primaries has been 29%. The average margin of victory in the caucuses has been 27.5%. Interesting stuff.

New Map

2008-02-20T11:00:00.002Z

Cineworld can

2008-02-19T12:56:00.001Z

suck my Milk Duds.

Big News Week

2008-02-19T08:46:00.002Z

The House of Representatives passes contempt motions on Harriet Miers and Josh Bolten.

The Orwellian-named 'Protect America Act' is allowed to expire and the world hasn't yet disintegrated.

The world gets a new country - Kosovo.

Fidel Castro resigns.

In Pakistan, Musharraf concedes defeat as Bhutto's and Sharif's parties split the vote.

Oh yeah, and Muhamed Fayed called Prince Philip a 'Nazi'.

And it's only Tuesday.